U.S. Bank and DAT introduce a quarterly report on truck freight pricing

U.S. Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics Unveil New Quarterly Trucking Rate Report

U.S. Bank has partnered with DAT Freight & Analytics to introduce a new quarterly analysis focused on U.S. truck freight rates. This initiative expands on the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which has been tracking shipment volumes and freight spending since 2017, by adding a dedicated report that examines contract rates, spot rates, and fuel surcharges using DAT’s extensive data resources.

The first edition, covering the final quarter of 2025, highlighted subtle yet significant market changes. Spot rates closed September at $1.62 per mile, climbed by 3% to $1.67 at October’s end, and then dipped by 1.1% to $1.65 by November’s close. Contract rates remained stable at $1.99 per mile through September and October, before inching up by 1% to $2.01 in early November and reaching $2.02 per mile by December 1.

Fuel surcharges played a pivotal role, holding steady at $0.42 per mile from late August through October. They dropped to $0.40 in early November, then rose to $0.43 by the start of December. This 7.5% increase was partly attributed to refinery outages in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions.

(Chart: Source: U.S. Bank/DAT)

The report pointed out that the November surge in fuel surcharges was notable, especially since national diesel prices actually fell during that month. It emphasized that fuel surcharges do not always move in tandem with pump prices, underscoring the importance of monitoring how these fees are calculated and updated.

Year-Over-Year Trends and Regional Insights

Compared to the previous year, both spot and contract rates saw less than a 1% increase. The report attributed this modest rise to normal seasonal fluctuations, noting that holiday demand often moderates annual comparisons. Stable contract rates continued to offer shippers and carriers a dependable benchmark.

Regional analysis revealed distinct patterns: the Northeast benefited from robust outbound freight volumes fueled by manufacturing and retail, while the Southeast lagged behind due to weaker employment and softer consumer activity.

Industry Dynamics: Market Shifts and Carrier Landscape

Underlying these rate movements were structural shifts, including a narrowing difference between contract and spot rates. This created a short-term opportunity for shippers to renegotiate routes or conduct mini-bids to capitalize on the convergence. However, in November, the gap between spot and contract rates widened again, even as load volumes for both categories declined.

During this period, shippers were encouraged to test their routing strategies and assess whether primary carriers could handle increased volumes without service disruptions. Carriers, meanwhile, secured commitments for the upcoming year, when freight activity typically accelerates.

Carrier Capacity and Market Risks

The report also drew attention to a less visible but significant trend: a continued reduction in carrier capacity. According to Transportation Insight, more carriers are leaving the market than entering, driven by new regulations and rising operational expenses. Although this hasn’t yet triggered a sharp increase in rates, it could set the stage for rapid rate hikes if freight demand rebounds.

Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, noted in the November Trucking Conditions Index that trucking capacity has declined substantially over the past year. This is reflected in stronger spot market rates recently. While capacity may have reached its lowest point, the focus now shifts to freight demand, which remains uncertain. Vise cautioned that carriers cannot achieve sustained margin recovery through capacity reductions alone.

For shippers relying heavily on the spot market, the report warned that shrinking carrier supply could lead to sudden rate increases if market dynamics change.

Impact of Trade Policies and Tariffs

Trade and tariff policies also significantly influenced the 2025 freight landscape. A 25% tariff on certain Mexican imports, including trucks, drove up equipment costs. When these tariffs were announced in early 2025, shippers accelerated shipments, causing a temporary spike in demand and rates, followed by a slowdown as excess inventory was depleted.

Looking Ahead

The report’s authors concluded that the first eleven months of 2025 were marked by stability rather than dramatic growth or decline. They advised shippers to diversify their carrier partnerships and closely monitor regulatory and global developments to stay ahead in a shifting market.