S&P 500 Poised For 'Volatile' 2026 As Fundstrat’s Mark Newton Predicts 7,300—Cautions Of Potential Stock Pullback In February

Fundstrat's Mark Newton: Expect Major Market Swings in 2026

Mark Newton of Fundstrat Global Advisors is cautioning investors to brace for heightened market turbulence in 2026. Although he maintains an optimistic year-end projection for the S&P 500 at 7,300, Newton anticipates a period of market consolidation that could spark a notable downturn beginning this spring.

Anticipated Market Consolidation

In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance, Newton described a scenario where early-year strength gives way to increased volatility. He expects the current upward momentum to continue for another six to eight weeks before stocks encounter resistance. According to Newton, "This year is likely to be marked by sideways movement and volatility, with selling pressure emerging in late February or early March and potentially lasting through May."

The main driver behind this expected volatility is fatigue within the technology sector. After an impressive three-year surge, leading companies such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are beginning to show signs of slowing down.

Newton observed that many major tech stocks have been trading within a narrow range for several months. He believes that a period of consolidation among these market leaders is necessary before the broader market can resume its upward trajectory.

Positive Indicators and Economic Resilience

Despite predicting a mid-year pullback, Newton remains confident in the ongoing bull market, which he attributes to the long-term growth potential of artificial intelligence. He also points to encouraging signs of market health, such as expanding participation across sectors. Industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks are all gaining ground, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average recently reached a new high of 18,131.95 points.

Newton further highlights the strength of the overall economy, referencing labor market data that shows declining layoff rates and a rising quits rate—both classic signs of a robust employment landscape.

Opportunities in Commodities and Select Stocks

Newton is bullish on commodities, forecasting that gold could climb to $5,000 and silver to $90 during the first half of the year, ahead of any increases in interest rates. Conversely, he expects oil prices to bottom out by mid-February, which could create attractive entry points for energy stocks.

Within the technology sector, Newton advises a targeted approach. While he remains cautious about the sector as a whole, he sees potential in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), both of which have underperformed recently but may be poised for a rebound.

Benchmark Index Performance in Early 2026

So far this year, major stock indices have posted gains. The S&P 500 is up 0.62% year-to-date, the Dow Jones has risen 1.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 has increased by 0.51%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, were both down in Thursday's premarket trading. SPY slipped 0.20% to $688.19, while QQQ fell 0.29% to $622.35, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Stock Snapshot

• Apple Inc. (AAPL): $258.90 (-0.55%)
• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): $481.56 (-0.40%)
• NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): $189.76 (+0.34%)
• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): $622.52 (-0.24%)
• SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): $688.45 (-0.16%)
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA): $429.75 (-0.38%)

Market data and news provided by Benzinga APIs.

Image credit: Shutterstock