🔥 Event Review
Around 22:04 last night, the market began to show signs of volatility, with the price of ETH/USDT dropping to about $2998.40 on some platforms, attracting market attention. Shortly after, around 22:15, the price of ETH plummeted rapidly from about $3028 to $2942, a drop of 2.83% within 10 minutes, triggering a chain of liquidations in high-leverage positions. Subsequently, between 22:15 and 22:33, the price continued to fall, dropping from about $2951 to $2925, and panic quickly spread. On-chain data shows that many accounts were forced to liquidate as ETH fell to around $2900, hitting their stop-loss levels. Some accounts, after losing $738,000, attempted to quickly "double down and add to their positions." Traders such as "Brother Maji" also experienced massive fluctuations in their positions, quickly reopening long positions after being liquidated, reflecting that the current market, amid sharp volatility, is seeing both panic selling and attempts to quickly recover positions after stop-losses. The latest observation shows the price has fallen back to about $2942.5. Although short-term sentiment has slightly stabilized, overall volatility remains intense.
⏰ Timeline
- 22:04 – Initial market volatility, ETH price around $2998.40, drawing attention.
- 22:15 – ETH price suddenly drops from about $3028 to $2942 (a 2.83% drop), triggering a chain of liquidations in high-leverage positions.
- 22:15 to 22:33 – Under the chain effect, the price further declines from about $2951 to $2925.
- 22:36 – On-chain data shows multiple high-leverage ETH long positions were forcibly liquidated as the price fell to around $2900, with some accounts quickly reopening positions after losing hundreds of thousands of dollars.
- 22:40 – After "Brother Maji" was fully liquidated, he quickly reopened long positions, now holding about 2,200 ETH.
- 22:54 – After the adjustment, the latest observed price is about $2942.5, with significant volatility still present in the short term.
🔍 Cause Analysis
This sharp fluctuation in ETH price is mainly due to two factors:
Chain Liquidation Effect
High-leverage long positions were rapidly liquidated after the price hit key support levels. Some traders were forced to close positions upon reaching stop-loss conditions, which triggered panic selling in the market. As a large number of accounts were successively liquidated, and some traders rushed to add to their positions, selling pressure intensified, forming a clear chain effect.Dual Impact of Macro Policies and Market Sentiment
In addition to technical factors, recent news indicates that regulatory policies in multiple countries and the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have increased market uncertainty. Changes in macro policies, tightening regulations, and investors' risk aversion have all put enormous volatility pressure on a market already concentrated with high-leverage operations. The uncertainty in the external economic environment, combined with technical chain liquidations, jointly drove the rapid price decline.
📈 Technical Analysis
Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data, the current technical performance of ETH is as follows:
- Obvious Oversold Signal: RSI has fallen below 30, entering the oversold zone; the J value shows an extremely low level, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term.
- Bollinger Bands Indicator: The price broke through the lower Bollinger Band and is moving along the lower band, with the %B indicator falling below 0.0, outside the technical support range, indicating an oversold state.
- Volume Support Analysis: Recent trading volume has surged by 1473.47%, and volume is negatively correlated with price, indicating strong panic selling. The OBV indicator has broken below previous lows, with selling power significantly increasing.
- Moving Average Arrangement: The price is below the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5/10/20/50/120 moving averages, showing a bearish alignment. The candlestick pattern frequently shows three black crows, further confirming the current downtrend.
Overall, technical indicators show strong short-term downward pressure, but oversold indicators also provide conditions for a potential rebound. Traders should closely monitor whether effective buying can form near key support levels and moving averages.
🌟 Market Outlook
After such intense volatility and a chain of liquidations, market sentiment remains fragile. In the short term, investors should remain cautious:
- Short-term Trading Advice: As RSI and other oversold indicators show potential rebound signals, buying on dips may offer opportunities after a pullback and stabilization, but strict position and risk control are essential to prevent further liquidations.
- Mid- to Long-term Holding Perspective: As a core asset of the ecosystem, ETH still has strong fundamental support. However, short-term policy uncertainty and market sentiment fluctuations may bring further volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to subsequent macro policy trends and changes in market capital flows.
- Risk Control: In an environment where high leverage frequently leads to liquidations, it remains important to reasonably adjust leverage ratios, set stop-losses in advance, and diversify risks to cope with intense market volatility.
Overall, although the current market is filled with panic and technical indicators are in an oversold state, as the market gradually digests the volatile adjustment, there is potential for a bottom rebound. Investors should combine their own risk tolerance with market dynamics, manage funds well, and patiently wait for clearer reversal signals.
