Altcoin Dominance Tracks the PMI: Why This Cycle Has No Real Altseason
In its analysis, Crypto Rover demonstrates that there is a strong association between the dominance of altcoins and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. In case the PMI is an indicator of economic growth, above 55 in general, the altcoins perform well. As the PMI is going down, the altcoins are also declining. The comparison of the charts indicates that this relationship has been steady and stable since 2019 meaning that the dynamics of the macroeconomic conditions directly determine the liquidity cycles of altcoin.
Existing PMI Contraction
The most recent PMI score of November 2025 is 48.2, which indicates that further shrinkage of the US manufacturing industry is observed. This coincides with the fact that, Bitcoin is leading by approximately 59 percent and the overall vulnerability of the altcoin market. According to analysts of sites such as CoinEdition and Phemex, Bitcoin is finding it easier and altcoins are having an even harder time capturing capital in volatile macroeconomic times.
PMI Recovery would do to Altcoins
The trend of the past indicates that altcoins will experience a resurgence in case the PMI surges above 50 by 2026 and the economy returns to growth. A deep recovery of over 55 would be even greater and would lead to a mass change of liquidity outward away of substantial assets like BTC and ETH and into riskier altcoins. Until now, the macro environment remains in support of Bitcoin dominance.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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