Fed Rate Cuts and QT End Set Crypto Up for 2026 Tailwind

Delphi Digital is calling it early. In their latest outlook, the research firm says the Federal Reserve is on track to turn from a drag on crypto to a mild tailwind by 2026. As rate cuts and fading quantitative tightening (QT) combine into the first clearly positive liquidity backdrop since early 2022.

Markets already price in the shift. Futures imply another 25 basis point cut in December 2025. Which would pull the federal funds rate down to roughly 3.5%-3.75%. From there, the forward curve suggests at least three more cuts in 2026. It leaving policy rates in the low-3% range by year-end if the path holds. Delphi stresses this is not a sudden “pivot” moment. It looks more like a controlled descent from the aggressive tightening cycle that defined 2022–2024.

QT Ends, TGA Flips, and RRP Is Empty – Liquidity Finally Turns Positive

The rate cuts are only half the story. Delphi Digital points to the plumbing behind the scenes. Where several levers are now moving in crypto’s favor at the same time. From December 1, QT effectively comes to an end, slowing the pace at which the Fed drains liquidity from the system. At the same time:

• The Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to draw down rather than refill, putting cash back into the market.
• The reverse repo (RRP) facility is already fully depleted, meaning that pool of parked liquidity is no longer being sucked out of circulation.

Put together, Delphi Digital argues, this creates the first net positive liquidity environment since early 2022. Short-term benchmarks like SOFR and fed funds have already drifted toward the high-3% range. While real rates are rolling over from their 2023-2024 peaks. Nothing has broken, but the pressure has clearly eased. For risk assets, and especially for crypto, that combination historically matters more than the headline rate alone.

What This Setup Means for Bitcoin and Major Crypto Assets

Delphi Digital frames 2026 as the year policy stops acting as a macro headwind and starts behaving like a soft tailwind. In their view, that backdrop tends to favor:

• Duration assets like growth equities.
• Hard assets such as gold.
• Digital assets with clear, structural demand, notably Bitcoin and large-cap crypto with ETF and institutional flows behind them.

They also remind readers that previous cycles were driven less by halvings and more by global liquidity waves. With U.S. policy easing, large pools of cash in money market funds, and non-U.S. central banks still active. Delphi Digital sees room for another leg higher if risk appetite holds. The message for crypto traders is simple, even if the macro is not. The era of “fight the Fed” looks to be ending. If the current path sticks. Year 2026 could be the first full year in this cycle where monetary policy and liquidity finally lean in the same direction as Bitcoin.