Bitcoin Updates: Macroeconomic Trends and Institutional Interest Help Ease Concerns Over Crypto Market Downturn

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden believes a dramatic collapse in the crypto market is unlikely at present, pointing out that the current environment lacks the exuberance that usually signals a major drop. In a recent appearance on the What

Did podcast, Alden , stressing that Bitcoin’s movement is now more influenced by large-scale economic trends and institutional participation than by the well-known four-year halving cycle. This perspective is shared by others in the industry, such as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, who has also and that the four-year cycle may be less relevant.

Alden’s outlook differs from the more pessimistic view of Sigma Capital CEO Vineet Budki, who

over the next couple of years. Still, Alden pointed out that market results rarely match the extreme scenarios investors imagine. “Things are rarely as positive or as negative as people predict,” she remarked, .

Her viewpoint is further supported by

Bitcoin’s recent price movements. After reaching a record high of $125,100 on October 5, the cryptocurrency dropped to $80,700 in early November, then recovered to $85,710 at the time of writing, . The 22.46% decrease over the past month has led to speculation about whether the market has bottomed out, but Alden cautioned against assuming that every decline will quickly lead to a bull market. “Many believe a bull market is guaranteed after a drop, but that’s not the case,” she said .

The ongoing discussion about Bitcoin’s direction highlights the evolving nature of the crypto sector. Alden pointed out that institutional involvement and broad economic forces—such as inflation and interest rates—are now the main influences on market trends

. This sentiment is echoed by Coinbase Institutional, which that futures traders may be underestimating the chance of a U.S. rate cut, noting that factors like tariffs and private sector data could help keep inflation in check.

At the same time, liquidity in the market remains a pressing issue.

on November 17, with $500 million of that coming from long positions. , one of its lowest points this year, signaling heightened nervousness among traders. Despite these challenges, some experts view the downturn as a chance for long-term gains. for investors with a long-term outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could lead a recovery as the economic picture becomes clearer.

Looking forward, Alden

, with the possibility of new record highs in 2027. Her forecast is in line with expectations for a shift after quantitative tightening ends, as the Federal Reserve’s planned halt to QT on December 1 and global stimulus efforts—such as Japan’s $110 billion package— .

However, the market’s ability to bounce back will depend on overall economic stability.

that Bitcoin could stay within the $60,000 to $80,000 range through the end of the year if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high and inflation remains close to 3%.