JPMorgan Lowers Bullish's 2026 Projection, Adjusts Focus to Fundamental Earnings

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JPMorgan Lowers Bullish's 2026 Projection, Adjusts Focus to Fundamental Earnings

Bitget-RWA2025/11/21 02:30

By:Bitget-RWA

- JPMorgan cuts Bullish's 2026 price target to $45 from $46, excluding $6.2M in high-margin stablecoin promotion revenue from IPO proceeds. - Bullish's Q3 results exceeded forecasts with $77M revenue and $29M adjusted EBITDA, though seasonal trading weakness tempered optimism. - Deutsche Bank upgrades Bullish to "Buy" with $51 target, citing U.S. expansion and infrastructure role for traditional finance firms in crypto. - Bullish's stock trades near 52-week low despite 72% Q3 revenue growth, as JPMorgan hi

JPMorgan & Co. has reiterated its "Neutral" stance on Bullish Inc. (BLSH) after the company’s third-quarter earnings, but has lowered its 2026 price estimate from $46 to $45, reflecting a revised outlook on the crypto exchange’s profit structure. This change, outlined in an equity research note released Thursday,

results from the exclusion

of high-margin stablecoin promotion revenue generated from Bullish’s $1.2 billion IPO funds, which analysts argued distorted the company’s fundamental valuation. The updated $45 target

represents an approximate 23.3% potential increase

from the recent closing price of $36.50.

Bullish’s third-quarter results surpassed projections, posting an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.10, in line with Bloomberg’s consensus, and revenue of $77 million, beating the $74 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $29 million, also ahead of forecasts,

fueled by $50 million in subscription services

and other (SS&O) revenue, a significant jump from $12 million a year earlier.

JPMorgan

analysts called the performance “solid,” though they observed some seasonal softness in event-driven trading.

The bank’s updated projections remove about $6.2 million in Q3 SS&O revenue linked to stablecoin promotions funded by IPO proceeds, which carry nearly a 100% margin. This change

prompted a reduction in earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026

, lowering the 2026 adjusted EPS estimate from $1.29 to $0.93. JPMorgan expects $12 million in stablecoin promotion revenue for Q4, which will also be excluded from its core valuation analysis.

The analysts noted that despite these downward revisions

, fourth-quarter dynamics—characterized by increased volatility in

bitcoin

and ethereum—set Bullish up for a “much more favorable” trading environment.

JPMorgan Lowers Bullish's 2026 Projection, Adjusts Focus to Fundamental Earnings image 0

This approach

stands in contrast to Deutsche Bank’s recent upgrade

of Bullish from “Hold” to “Buy,” though with a slightly lower price target of $51. Deutsche Bank pointed to Bullish’s U.S. expansion and its role as a technology provider for traditional financial institutions entering crypto as major growth factors. The bank also highlighted the exchange’s

72% year-over-year revenue growth

in Q3 and its ability to maintain adjusted EBITDA margins above 40% in 2026.

Bullish’s shares have struggled, trading near their lowest point in a year amid a broader downturn in the crypto market.

The stock has declined 46% over the past six months

, even as Q3 revenue jumped by 72%. JPMorgan’s analysts acknowledged the market’s volatility but

highlighted strategic moves

, such as the October launch of U.S. options trading and ongoing efforts to attract institutional clients, as potential drivers for future expansion.

The decision to omit non-core income is in line with a wider industry shift toward reevaluating crypto valuations in light of regulatory changes and market consolidation. While Bullish’s core trading and fee-based revenues remain strong, JPMorgan’s updated model

highlights the difficulty of maintaining profitability

in a rapidly evolving regulatory and technological landscape.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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