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Bitcoin Updates: ETF Withdrawals and Rising Short Positions Push Bitcoin Below Bearish Threshold

Bitcoin Updates: ETF Withdrawals and Rising Short Positions Push Bitcoin Below Bearish Threshold

Bitget-RWA2025/11/19 12:46
By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin fell below the 0.75 cost basis quantile, a key bear-market threshold identified by Glassnode, signaling renewed downward pressure. - ETF outflows surged $866.7M on November 13, with BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust leading redemptions amid $100,000 price drop. - Harvard's $443M IBIT investment contrasts with bearish technical signals like the "death cross," while Nansen tracks $5.7M in new short positions. - Tight futures liquidity and 46% Fed rate-cut probability amplify downs

Bitcoin Drops Below Crucial Bear-Market Level, Prompting Rethink of Bullish Sentiment

Bitcoin has slipped under the 0.75 Cost Basis Quantile,

, according to blockchain analytics provider Glassnode. This level, representing the price at which three-quarters of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was last bought, has served as a key marker for market cycles in the past. has been essential for reviving bullish trends. The recent drop points to renewed bearish sentiment, with long-term investors showing limited selling as early signs of stabilization begin to appear.

This decline comes amid a broader downturn in digital asset markets, as

ETFs saw unprecedented outflows. in net withdrawals, marking the second-highest daily outflow since their debut in January 2024. BlackRock’s led the withdrawals with $257 million leaving the fund, while Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust saw $318 million in redemptions. The selloff coincided with Bitcoin falling below $100,000, and further accelerating the price drop.

Large investors are also adjusting their approaches in response to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

to BlackRock’s IBIT, marking a rare move into Bitcoin for the institution. This step reflects rising institutional interest in crypto assets despite recent volatility, even as technical indicators across the market remain bearish. , a negative chart pattern where short-term averages fall below long-term ones, raising concerns about extended sideways movement.

Bearish sentiment is being reinforced by evolving expectations around monetary policy.

of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, down from near certainty just a month earlier. have increased short positions by $5.7 million in the past day, indicating a negative outlook. Meanwhile, liquidity in Bitcoin futures remains constrained, with forced sales intensifying as institutional risk thresholds are met.

Despite recent volatility, some investors believe a turnaround could be on the horizon.

that two major market makers are currently facing financial shortfalls, but he noted that as liquidity stabilizes, strategic buying opportunities may arise. Additionally, , with BitMine acquiring 200,000 ETH valued at $840 million to take advantage of the price dip.

The next major challenge for the market is as Bitcoin nears $94,890, a price last reached in early May 2025.

below the 0.75 quantile could reinforce the bearish trend, though historical data shows such levels often precede eventual recoveries. For now, attention is on macroeconomic developments and institutional moves, with ETF outflows and interest rate expectations shaping the short-term market direction.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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