DOGE drops 15.12% over the past month as Trump’s tariff pledges remain unmet

As of November 17, 2025,

experienced a 0.21% decrease over the past day, settling at $0.15889. Over the previous week, DOGE declined by 7.01%, fell 15.12% in the last month, and dropped 49.92% over the past year. This downward trend highlights a broader loss of confidence in the token, as recent political events have raised doubts about the likelihood of policy-driven economic support.

Ongoing political instability continues to dampen investor enthusiasm, especially as the anticipated "dividend" payouts linked to President Donald Trump’s economic initiatives have not come to fruition. Trump has repeatedly advocated for sharing the financial benefits of his economic measures—such as those from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and tariffs—with American citizens. Despite these assurances, no such payments have been made, and even Trump’s AI chatbot on Truth Social has admitted that distributions have not occurred. This has fueled doubts about the sustainability of these narratives as drivers of market optimism.

The "tariff dividend" proposal, which Trump recently suggested could provide at least $2,000 per person, has also failed to gain momentum. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that such disbursements would require congressional approval, and it remains uncertain whether the administration has the necessary backing or legal authority to implement them. Trump’s claims have faced resistance from both political adversaries and legal analysts, with the Supreme Court expressing reservations about the administration’s powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Recent DOGE price action has shown no indication of an imminent recovery. Technical analysis points to the token remaining in a bearish trend, with prices staying below both short- and long-term moving averages. The absence of a clear catalyst—whether from Trump’s policy announcements or broader economic indicators—has left investors adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach. This uncertainty has also affected the wider market, as DOGE has not benefited from the recent positive momentum in the digital asset space.

Backtest Hypothesis

To analyze DOGE’s latest performance, one could design a backtest to evaluate a hypothetical trading approach based on the technical signals discussed. A robust event-study backtest would require a specific event trigger—such as a 10% decline over the past year—and a set holding period, for instance, the following 60 trading days. The goal would be to determine whether the market typically responds favorably or unfavorably to such events. Considering DOGE’s recent trends, this analysis could offer a data-driven view on whether the token has historically recovered from similar downturns or continued to slide.