Economic Impact Grows as Ongoing ACA Funding Stalemate Prolongs Historic Shutdown

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has now reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record set in 2019 and becoming the longest in American history. The economic and social consequences are worsening daily. House Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed a "less optimistic" view about a quick resolution, as talks between Democrats and Republicans remain stalled over funding for Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and the reopening of federal agencies, according to

. As a result of the deadlock, 42 million Americans are currently without full SNAP benefits, and disruptions are increasing for air traffic controllers, federal employees, and small businesses, as reported by .

Goldman Sachs has cautioned that the economic impact could be historic, estimating a 1.15 percentage-point reduction in GDP growth for the fourth quarter.

Analyst Alec Phillips pointed out that this shutdown is affecting a wider range of government functions than previous ones, which had allowed some agencies to remain funded. "A prolonged shutdown may start to affect private sector operations," Phillips explained, highlighting that the reduction in federal spending and investment is more pronounced this time, as detailed in . Analytics has also raised alarms, projecting weekly economic losses of $30 billion, according to .

The political stalemate appears to be deepening. In a CBS interview, President Donald Trump reaffirmed that he would not enter negotiations until the government is reopened, labeling Democrats as "extortionists" and criticizing the ACA as "terrible," as reported by Fox5DC. Senate Democrats have blocked 14 attempts to reopen the government, insisting on guarantees for ACA subsidies before agreeing to any deal, Fox5DC also reported. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has encouraged Republicans to consider ending the filibuster to circumvent Democratic opposition, a step Senate Republicans have traditionally avoided, according to Fox5DC.

Social welfare programs are among those most severely affected. The Department of Agriculture initially held back $8 billion in SNAP benefits until a federal court ordered partial payments to resume by November 5, according to

. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was "awaiting court direction," while House Democrats accused Trump of "using hunger as a weapon," the Economic Times article reported. Likewise, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has been suspended, causing delays in home sales and raising risks for properties in coastal areas, according to .

The aviation industry is feeling the strain as well. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has warned that airport delays will worsen due to staffing shortages, with Newark Airport already experiencing ground delays, Fox5DC noted. Executives at Allegiant Air have warned that continued disruptions could jeopardize Thanksgiving travel, and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has voiced concerns about safety risks from understaffed TSA and air traffic control teams, according to

.

Experts are split on the long-term effects. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the shutdown could result in $7 billion to $14 billion in permanent economic losses, though

anticipates a recovery in early 2026 as back pay is distributed and postponed spending resumes, according to . However, Trump's recent refusal to promise back pay for furloughed employees has sparked concerns about lasting harm, the CNN article noted.

With both sides firmly entrenched, the effects of the shutdown may go beyond economic statistics. Jonathan Millar of Barclays remarked, "This time could be different," given the current economic vulnerability and the unprecedented magnitude of the crisis, according to

. For now, the country faces a holiday season filled with uncertainty, with no clear solution in sight.