BAT drops 1.05% over 24 hours as Bangladesh faces declining sales and operational difficulties

On November 2, 2025, British American Tobacco (BAT) saw its share price fall by 1.05% over a 24-hour period, settling at $0.1891. Despite this, the stock gained 13.71% over the past week and rose 16.58% in the last month. Over the previous year, however, BAT’s value dropped by 18.77%, highlighting persistent difficulties from regional headwinds and rising operational expenses.

BAT’s recent performance has been shaped by updates from its Bangladesh division, which reported a 23% year-over-year decrease in quarterly profits. This downturn was largely attributed to a significant drop in sales volumes and higher operating costs, including increased excise taxes and expenses related to moving its Dhaka facility to Ashulia in July 2024. Net sales for the third quarter declined 18% year-on-year to Tk 16.77 billion, while profits for the first nine months of the year fell 46% compared to the previous year. Domestic sales in Bangladesh were down 20%, but leaf exports surged by 78% to Tk 3.70 billion.

The transfer of BAT Bangladesh’s operations resulted in one-time expenses totaling Tk 2.12 billion and a 15% rise in operating costs. Finance charges and excise taxes also increased by 21% and 14%, respectively, putting further pressure on profits. Moreover, BAT reported a negative net operating cash flow per share for January through September, shifting from a positive Tk 26.17 to a negative Tk 21.70 per share.

These operational challenges have played a role in the recent fluctuations of BAT’s stock price. Even with a 300% rise in cash dividends for 2024, the company’s ability to sustain profits and positive cash flow has been hampered by substantial fixed costs and weakening domestic demand in Bangladesh. This has also affected BAT’s asset base, as net asset value per share dropped from Tk 113.82 to Tk 105.22.

Investors are closely watching BAT’s technical indicators for signs of a rebound. While analysts have not issued short-term forecasts for BAT’s price, the recent weekly and monthly gains of 13.71% and 16.58% indicate that some short-term volatility may be easing. Nevertheless, the annual decline points to ongoing long-term obstacles for the company.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting approach could be designed using BAT’s historical data and technical metrics like moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) to pinpoint optimal buy and sell opportunities. This method would seek to identify when the stock is overbought or oversold, using these signals to anticipate price reversals. By examining how BAT performed under similar market conditions in the past, the backtest would evaluate the reliability of these trading signals. The success of the strategy would be measured by metrics such as annualized returns, drawdowns, and the Sharpe ratio.