A nearly $500 million bitcoin short position, along with another trader’s record of 12 consecutive profitable trades, is revealing the deepest gamesmanship in the cryptocurrency market.
Beneath the waves of the cryptocurrency market, an invisible war is unfolding. Over the past half month, two mysterious whales have staged a spectacular long-short battle in the market with more than $500 million in capital.
On one side is a coordinated team dubbed the “Insider Whale,” who, with precise timing, went heavily short on the eve of key events; on the other side is the solo “Smart Money” whale, who achieved a 100% win rate with 12 consecutive profitable trades, accumulating over $12.6 million in profits.
I. Whale Identities: The Invisible Hands Behind the Market
In the crypto world, investors with massive capital who can influence market trends are called “whales.” Two addresses that have recently drawn market attention display sharply contrasting trading styles and astonishing results.
● Address 0xb317...83ae has been labeled by the market as the “Insider Whale.” This address, together with two other related addresses, forms an operational matrix, precisely setting up short positions before the market crash on October 11. According to monitoring, these three related addresses earned over $160 million during the “black swan” event.
● Address 0xc2a3...e5f2, on the other hand, is called “Smart Money” due to its incredible win rate. According to on-chain analysts, this whale has maintained a perfect record since October 11, with all 12 trades being profitable. The most recent trade closed a long position when BTC broke $111,000, netting $1.774 million in a single transaction.
The two whales not only have different trading styles but also operate with different capital scales. The table below details a comparison of their core characteristics:
Comparison Dimension | Insider Whale (0xb317) | Smart Money Whale (0xc2a3) |
Trading Style | Multi-address coordinated operation | Independent decision-making, flexible shifts |
Core Strategy | Event-driven high-leverage shorting | Dual long-short, short-term trading |
Holding Period | Medium to long-term positioning | Short-term volatility trading |
Leverage Usage | 10x full position leverage | Moderate leverage, controllable risk |
Capital Scale | Related addresses hold $386 million USDC | Single address operation, smaller scale |
Market Impact | Triggers insider trading suspicions | Seen as a market indicator |
II. Full Trading Records: Key Nodes and Precise Timing
The operations of these two whales over the past half month could almost serve as a textbook guide to market strategy.
The Insider Whale’s trading path shows a precise event-driven pattern:
● October 10: Coordinated addresses begin capital allocation, with large funds transferred from address 0x2ea1 to intermediary address 0x4f9
● Night before October 11: Precisely establishes BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions before the market crash
● October 11: Gradual closing of positions, with three related addresses earning over $160 million
● October 14: Establishes another BTC short position worth $498 million
● October 20-22: Continues to add to short positions and deposits 3,003 BTC to Binance
● October 23: Closes $227 million in short positions, earning another $6.4 million
The Smart Money Whale demonstrates a completely different trading philosophy:
● October 15: Keenly detects market reversal, opens a $140 million BTC short position
● October 16: Quickly reverses to go long BTC and holds for 5 days
● October 22-23: Rapidly switches between long and short, exits all positions profitably
● October 24: Influenced by news of the US-China presidential meeting, closes long position as BTC breaks $111,000
● Continues through October 27: Maintains perfect record, 12 trades without a single loss
The detailed trading records of these two whales reveal their different understandings of and strategies for the market:
Time Node | Insider Whale Actions | Smart Money Whale Actions | Market Environment |
October 10-11 | Coordinated establishment of short positions | No recorded operations yet | Night before market crash |
October 15 | Holding massive short positions | Opens $140 million short position | Market fluctuating downward |
October 16-21 | Maintains short stance | Reverses to long and holds | Market gradually rebounds |
October 22-23 | Closes short positions for profit | Switches between long and short, all profitable | Market direction selection |
October 24 | No new operations disclosed | Closes long position for $1.77 million profit | BTC breaks previous high |
October 27 | Related addresses hold $386 million USDC | Continues perfect record | Market fluctuates at high levels |
III. Market Impact Analysis: How Whale Operations Disrupt the Crypto Ecosystem
Price and Trading Aspects
● Concentrated whale operations have a significant short-term impact on market prices. When the Insider Whale established a 4,348.74 BTC short position worth as much as $492 million on October 14, the sheer size of the position itself exerted downward pressure on the market.
● More importantly, when these whales choose to close their positions, it also has a major impact on the market. On October 23, as two massive BTC short positions were simultaneously closed, it injected a shot of confidence into the recently volatile crypto market, temporarily ending this round of BTC market swings.
On-chain Capital Flows
● Whale activity reflects new trends in on-chain capital flows. According to tracking data, the Insider Whale’s related addresses still hold about $386 million in USDC liquidity. The movement of this “ammunition” is worth close attention.
● When these addresses begin large-scale stablecoin transfers, it often signals that new market operations are about to unfold. For example, after the Insider Whale deposited $80 million USDC to a platform on October 10, they immediately opened a short position of about 3,700 BTC.
● The whales also demonstrate sophisticated capital management strategies in their operations. On October 10, the Insider Whale transferred large funds from address (0x2eA) to intermediary address (0x4f9), which then injected funds multiple times into the trading address (0xb317). This clear division of labor in capital flows shows highly professional operational characteristics.
Investor Sentiment and Market Tracking
● Whale operations have led to a clear split in market sentiment. Some investors view these whales as “smart money” and try to track their trades; others question market fairness, believing insider trading undermines the decentralized ethos of the crypto market.
● Currently, whale positions have become a reference indicator for many investors’ decisions. Especially when multiple whales act in concert, it is more likely to trigger retail investors to follow suit, amplifying market volatility.
● Meanwhile, regulators have also begun to pay attention to such large-scale operations. A national financial regulatory authority has already referred a group of individuals suspected of price manipulation and improper trading in the virtual asset market to the judiciary, and decided to fine some of those involved.
IV. Whale Identity Mysteries: Frontmen and Backstage Bosses
Frontman: Garrett Jin
● The community previously speculated that the whale who opened a massive short position on Hyperliquid three days in advance and profited $200 million might be former Bitforex CEO Garrett Jin. The reason is that the whale’s address had financial ties to Garrett Jin, and after being exposed, he immediately changed his Telegram privacy settings.
However, on October 13, Garrett Jin responded that he was not the actual trader, but only provided research services for client assets. He emphasized, “The related funds do not belong to me personally, but are client assets.”
Regulatory Attention and Market Manipulation Suspicions
● These whale operations have also attracted regulatory attention. According to reports, a national financial regulator revealed at a press conference that it had investigated a large investor known as a “whale,” who used tens of billions of local currency to artificially inflate the prices of multiple cryptocurrencies, illegally profiting billions.
The investor’s methods included: placing large buy orders to create a buying frenzy, then quickly selling all holdings for profit after other investors followed suit. They even transferred tokens previously purchased on overseas crypto exchanges to domestic platforms for sale, thus achieving market manipulation.
● In addition, regulators have also investigated a case of improper trading involving the dissemination of false positive information on social media for profit. This marks the first time regulators have investigated and handled unfair trading in the virtual asset sector by monitoring social media platforms.
V. Risk Warnings and Dynamic Tracking
Systemic Risk of Insider Trading:
● If these whales are indeed trading on insider information, it means there is severe information asymmetry in the crypto market. Once these information sources dry up or regulators intervene, it could trigger a chain reaction.
Risk of Liquidation from High-Leverage Positions:
● The Insider Whale uses a 10x full position leverage model, which amplifies returns but also increases liquidation risk. If the market moves 7.8% against them, their positions will face liquidation.
Market Manipulation Suspicion:
● Whales can manipulate the market to some extent through coordinated operations with related addresses. Ordinary investors who blindly follow may end up as “bag holders.”
Regulatory Response:
● As these suspected insider trading incidents ferment, regulators in various countries may intervene to investigate. Especially when precise timing involves political events, it could attract broader political attention.
Whale Follow-up Operations:
● It is necessary to closely monitor the next moves of these addresses. The Insider Whale’s related address (0x4f9) still holds about $386 million in USDC liquidity, and the flow of these funds will affect market direction.
Market Sentiment Comparison
The table below summarizes the current sentiments and strategies of different market participants:
Market Participant | Current Sentiment | Main Strategy | Risk Appetite |
Whales | Obvious divergence | Dual long-short operations | High leverage, high risk |
Institutional Investors | Cautiously optimistic | Follow trends, build positions in batches | Medium risk |
Retail Investors | Confused and following the crowd | Track whale addresses | High risk, lack of discernment |
Market Makers | Neutral | Provide liquidity, earn spreads | Low risk |
