Bitcoin Updates: Production Slowdown and Accommodative Fed Policies Extend Bitcoin's Bull Market Through 2026

The Parabolic Move Has Yet to Begin: Raoul Pal Cautions That the Market Remains in Its Early Growth Phase

Analysts monitoring the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) believe that the intersection of crypto and macroeconomic trends could mean the ongoing bull market lasts until 2026. The PMI, which tracks industrial performance in the U.S., has stayed under the 50 mark—signaling contraction—for seven straight months, a trend that has historically coincided with Bitcoin's (BTC) market tops. This relationship, first highlighted by Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and supported by macro analysts such as Colin Talks Crypto, points to a potentially extended bull cycle that may break away from the usual four-year halving pattern, according to a

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The ongoing stagnation in the ISM PMI mirrors larger manufacturing challenges, such as elevated tariffs, unpredictable trade policies, and sluggish global demand. For instance, a transportation equipment sector manager described the business environment as "deeply depressed," with tariffs raising supply chain costs by as much as 20%, as noted in the CoinEdition analysis. These obstacles have kept the PMI below 50, a level that has historically marked the start of Bitcoin’s major rallies. Colin Talks Crypto pointed out that if this trend continues, the current market cycle could last "much longer than

cycles usually do," with possible peaks not arriving until the third or fourth quarter of 2025, according to .

Recent Bitcoin price trends reinforce this outlook. With BTC trading at $111,582,

has climbed 92% since the start of the year, driven by growing institutional interest. Currently, fifteen U.S. states are preparing to hold Bitcoin reserves, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for long-term holders stands at 3.11—well below the historical highs of 12—indicating significant potential for further gains, as highlighted by CoinEdition. Additionally, Bitcoin’s 0.86 correlation with the S&P 500 signals its evolution from a speculative asset to a broader economic indicator. The Federal Reserve’s supportive policies, with 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) real yields at 1.77%, are also creating favorable liquidity conditions for BTC, as CoinEdition reports.

Nonetheless, trade disputes continue to inject uncertainty. Recent U.S.-China talks in Kuala Lumpur sought to prevent 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, while South Korea’s $350 billion investment commitment to the U.S. is delayed over cash payment terms. These events underscore the delicate balance between geopolitical tensions and crypto market liquidity. For example, if South Korea’s investment involves a large cash outlay, it could strain KRW liquidity, prompting traders to favor USD and stablecoin pairs as pressure on the local currency rises. On the other hand, staggered funding could help stabilize the won and broaden crypto market participation.

Despite these unknowns, a lengthened market cycle presents strategic opportunities. Investors who bought in at an average price of $33,500 now see an MVRV of 3.11, much lower than the 7-plus levels observed at previous market tops. This indicates that Bitcoin still has considerable room to grow before becoming overvalued, as CoinEdition cautions. Furthermore, ongoing manufacturing weakness could keep the Federal Reserve’s policies accommodative, potentially fueling Bitcoin’s rally into late 2025 if the PMI eventually rises above 50, as historical trends and the Bitget report suggest.