1. Probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October reaches 99.4%
According to CME data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.6%. In addition, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by December is 98.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.9%. -Original
2. U.S. government shutdown enters 19th day, market confidence hit
On October 20, the U.S. government shutdown entered its 19th day, with "No Kings" protests erupting across the country. Demonstrators accused the Trump administration of sliding toward authoritarianism. Protest slogans included "Resist Fascism" and "We the People Rule," reflecting a split in society's trust in power and constitutional governance. The Republican Party called it a "hate America rally," but the protests were more symbolic of liberals resisting authoritarianism. The shutdown has stalled debt negotiations and frozen the budget, undermining market confidence, putting pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, and causing the U.S. dollar index to fall. Bitunix analysts warn that if the shutdown continues, financial markets may face a deeper trust crisis. -Original
3. Fed may announce end of balance sheet reduction next week, economists analyze repo market pressure
Economists have analyzed that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of balance sheet reduction at next week's rate decision due to emerging funding pressures in the repo market. Fed Chair Powell has previously hinted at waiting for the right time to end the balance sheet reduction. It is expected that the Fed will offset maturing mortgage-backed securities by purchasing U.S. Treasuries to maintain the size of its balance sheet, while the supply of short-term Treasuries may decrease by about $2 billion per month. -Original
4. Fed may lower reserve interest rate to ease funding pressure
The Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on bank reserve balances to address tensions in the repo market. Currently, this rate is 4.15%, 15 basis points above the lower bound of the federal funds target range. If lowered by 5 basis points, banks may shift funds to the repo market, helping to stabilize repo rates. Analysts expect the Fed may eventually implement this adjustment but believe it is too early for a decision at the October meeting. -Original
5. South Korea changes crypto exchange token listing regulation to direct government supervision
The Financial Services Commission of South Korea has decided to change the regulation of crypto exchange token listings from self-regulation to direct government supervision. -Original
6. XRP investor loses $3 million due to hot wallet leak, experts urge security awareness
An XRP investor lost $3 million in XRP assets after entering the seed phrase of a cold wallet into another iPad, exposing the key and turning it into a hot wallet, which was subsequently hacked. Experts remind that cold wallets are more suitable for protecting large amounts of crypto assets. -Original
7. U.S. bank reserve ratio falls below 13%, approaching critical level
The ratio of U.S. bank reserves to bank assets has fallen below 13%. New York Fed President Williams has previously regarded this level as the critical point for "adequate" reserves. This change is related to the U.S. Treasury rebuilding its cash balance. -Original
8. Hong Kong SFC supports compliant development of digital asset funds
On October 20, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission stated at a seminar that it supports the compliant regulation of digital asset funds and tokenized funds. Dr. Kelvin Yip, Executive Director of the Intermediaries Division of the SFC, emphasized the commitment to building a safe, reliable, and sustainable digital asset fund ecosystem through robust risk management and investor protection. The seminar also discussed the importance of risk management and technological innovation, calling on the fund industry to strengthen cooperation to enhance regulatory compliance capabilities. -Original
