Solana ETF approval odds at 100% says Bloomberg’s Eric BalchunasSEC withdraws delay notices for crypto ETFs

Solana ETF approval odds are now at 100% according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

“Honestly, the odds are really 100% now,” Balchunas wrote in a Sep. 30 X post, as he credited the improved odds to recent regulatory developments that have effectively fast‑tracked the usually drawn‑out approval process and stripped away most of the usual hurdles.

According to Balchunas, the SEC’s decision to adopt generic listing standards for crypto-linked commodity trusts has rendered the 19b-4 filings and their statutory review timelines largely irrelevant.

For those unaware, the SEC signed off on new generic listing standards for commodity-based trusts earlier this month, effectively removing the step-by-step calendar that once governed how long the agency could take to approve or deny a proposed ETF.

Typically, when an ETF issuer filed a 19b-4 form, it triggered a review clock that gave the SEC up to 240 days to make a decision. But with the new standards in place, that process no longer applies in the same way. Instead, final approval now rests on the S-1 registration statements, which require sign-off from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance.

As of Sep. 30, a number of ETF issuers had already submitted amended filings with the commission to align with the new standards, which just leaves the S-1 approvals from the Division of Corporation Finance as the final step before launch.

“The baby could come any day. Be ready,” Balchunas added.

SEC withdraws delay notices for crypto ETFs

The cryptocurrency community has long awaited the approval of altcoin-based ETFs ever since the commission approved Ethereum spot ETFs last year. At least nine issuers have filed to launch Solana ETFs, with others pushing for products tied to XRP (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA).

Initially, the SEC had been delaying decisions on these proposals under the traditional 19b-4 review process. However, on Sep. 29, the commission withdrew all remaining delay notices tied to these applications, which provided further confirmation that the regulators were preparing to issue final decisions without further holdups.

With October now being dubbed “ETF Month” by market watchers, expectations are high that a wave of altcoin ETF approvals could arrive within weeks.

According to analysts at crypto.news, if a Solana ETF is approved, it could provide the necessary catalyst that drives SOL towards $260. When writing, SOL was trading at $210.61, up 1.1% on the day.