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Flash
- 22:14The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 97.3%.Jinse Finance reported, according to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 97.3%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 0.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 5.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 94.2%.
- 22:06Bank of England Deputy Governor: Stablecoin holding limits will be lifted once economic risks are eliminatedJinse Finance reported that Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden stated that once stablecoins no longer pose a threat to the economy, the Bank of England will lift the currently proposed limits on the amount of stablecoins individuals and businesses can hold. Breeden pointed out that the rapid adoption of stablecoins could lead to a "large-scale outflow" of bank deposits.
- 21:43Traders Bet on Major Moves by the Federal Reserve by Year-EndJinse Finance reported that traders have begun betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one significant rate cut before the end of the year, convinced that policy may turn more aggressive than currently expected by other market observers. Recent trading activity in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) shows the market is increasing its positioning for a half-percentage-point rate cut, which could occur at either the meeting later this month or the December meeting. This expectation exceeds the two 25-basis-point cuts already priced into current interest rate swaps. Due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, the release of key employment and other economic data has been delayed. Once the deadlock is resolved, a large amount of data will emerge, revealing the latest changes in economic conditions. Some expect this data may further indicate economic weakness, thereby supporting additional rate cuts.