is the stock market still falling? Guide

Is the stock market still falling? Guide

Introduction

If you’ve searched “is the stock market still falling” you’re likely trying to decide whether recent down days signal a continued decline or just short-term volatility. This article answers that question for late‑2025 by explaining which indexes and indicators to monitor, summarizing recent headlines, and offering practical, non‑advisory steps investors and traders can take. You will learn how to read price, breadth, volatility, and macro data — and where Bitget tools and Bitget Wallet can help you monitor risk across asset classes.

Overview — immediate answer

Short answer: determining whether the market is "still falling" requires tracking multiple, concurrent signals rather than relying on single‑day moves. Price action across major indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite), market breadth, volatility (VIX), trading volume and macro/fixed‑income data together tell the clearest story. As of late‑December 2025, several sources reported short streaks of losses — for example, CNBC and Investopedia noted a third consecutive losing day for the S&P 500 on December 30, 2025 — but other reports noted ongoing strength in year‑to‑date gains and intermittent rebounds. Use this guide to decide whether the market is still falling or merely experiencing a pullback.

Recent market context (late 2025)

Key headlines and index performance

• As of Dec 30, 2025, CNBC reported that the S&P 500 posted its third consecutive losing day, reflecting near‑term weakness in late‑December but not a clear long‑term trend reversal.
• Investopedia (Dec 30, 2025) summarized that major indexes closed slightly lower that day, following earlier holiday‑period gains.
• CNN Business highlighted episodes of sharp single‑day drops in November 2025 tied to changing Fed expectations and major name‑specific moves (for example, large declines in technology leaders on Nov 13, 2025).
• Investor's Business Daily (Dec 31, 2025) observed the market sitting near highs in parts of late‑December despite periodic pullbacks, noting that futures were near highs going into year‑end.
• Associated Press coverage across December 2025 described Wall Street pulling back from record heights at times during the month, while cumulative gains for 2025 remained meaningful.

Taken together, these reports show a late‑2025 market that has been net positive on the year, yet vulnerable to short, sharp declines tied to macro news and concentrated sector moves.

Major drivers in the recent period

• Federal Reserve policy and rate‑cut expectations: Markets closely watched Fed minutes and the December 9–10 FOMC meeting as of late‑December 2025 (sources: Reuters, Investopedia). Any hint of a cautious Fed can pressure risk assets.
• Sector concentration and large caps: Late‑2025 pullbacks were often led by major technology and AI names; for example, declines in Nvidia and Tesla pressured the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in late December (reported by multiple outlets).
• Earnings and company‑specific dynamics: Company earnings, capital spending guidance and corporate share‑issuance decisions (e.g., firms issuing stock to fund asset purchases) affected sentiment in specific names, magnifying market moves.
• Geopolitical and commodity moves: Precious metals and commodity volatility (silver and gold swings in December 2025) added to cross‑asset noise.
• Crypto‑linked corporate exposure: Firms with large crypto treasuries (see Strategy / MSTR case below) added an extra layer of risk to both equity and crypto market sentiment.

Case study: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and MSTR

• As of late‑December 2025, Strategy’s stock (MSTR) reached fresh yearly lows following a broader tech sell‑off on Dec 29, 2025; MSTR fell to about $155.32, down roughly 71% from a 2024 high near $543 (source: TradingView / MSTR data referenced Dec 2025).
• Drivers cited include potential MSCI index delisting risk, large at‑the‑market (ATM) share issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases, and dilution concerns. Analysts flagged the possibility of significant outflows if index exclusion occurs (JPMorgan commentary noted potential multi‑billion dollar impacts), and commentary around the company's mNAV multiple falling well below historical levels was widely reported.
• Strategy continued to buy Bitcoin using proceeds from share sales; by December 2025 it held approximately 672,497 BTC with an average purchase price near $75,000 per coin and substantial cash reserves that mitigated near‑term solvency concerns (sources: CryptoQuant, company filings). These firm‑level dynamics created outsized volatility for MSTR and also influenced sentiment in risk assets tied to crypto.

Note: the Strategy/MSTR example illustrates how company‑specific financing choices and exposure to volatile assets can amplify market declines in individual equities and sectors without necessarily signaling a broad market collapse.

How to tell if the market is "still falling" — indicators and data

To decide if the market is still falling, monitor a combination of price action, breadth, volatility, volume, and macro/fixed‑income signals.

Price‑based indicators

• Major indexes: Track S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite daily closes. Multiple consecutive daily closes to the downside across all three increases the chance of a sustained decline.
• Moving averages: Watch the 50‑day and 200‑day simple moving averages (SMA). A market repeatedly closing below its 50‑day SMA is showing short‑term weakness; a weekly close under the 200‑day SMA is a stronger signal of a longer downtrend.
• Lower highs / lower lows: A pattern of lower highs and lower lows on daily and weekly charts is a classic technical definition of a downtrend.
• Support and resistance breaks: Watch for index closes below long‑standing support zones; failure to reclaim broken support within several sessions often signals persistent weakness.

Breadth and participation

• Advance‑decline line: Declining breadth while the headline index is flat or rising suggests concentration (few stocks driving gains) and increases the risk that weakness will spread.
• New highs vs. new lows: A surge in new lows and a drop in new highs across the NYSE and Nasdaq are consistent with a broader decline.
• Sector leadership shifts: If defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) begin to outperform cyclical/tech sectors, that rotation often accompanies a broader risk‑off move.

Volatility and sentiment indicators

• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): A rising VIX signals elevated expected volatility and often coincides with market declines. Persistent VIX elevation suggests sustained fear.
• Put/call ratios and options skews: Large increases in put buying relative to calls shows hedging and bearish positioning.
• Retail/investor sentiment surveys and Fear & Greed metrics: Extreme pessimism can precede a bottom; extreme greed can precede pullbacks. Use these as context, not sole signals.

Volume and liquidity

• Declines on rising volume are more likely to be sustained than declines on low volume. In thin holiday trading, technically significant moves can occur on low liquidity; be cautious interpreting those.
• Order book liquidity and ETF flows: Large outflows from ETFs or sudden widening of bid‑ask spreads can indicate stress that supports a continued fall.

Macro and fixed‑income signals

• Treasury yields and yield curve: Rising short‑term yields or a deeply inverted curve historically correlate with economic concerns that can lead to sustained equity weakness.
• Inflation and employment data: Hot inflation readings or stronger‑than‑expected employment can push the Fed to delay cuts — often negative for risk assets. As of late‑December 2025, markets were parsing Fed minutes from the Dec 9–10 meeting for guidance (source: Investopedia / Reuters).
• Fed minutes and policy guidance: Dovish language can help stabilize risk assets; hawkish or cautious wording can trigger renewed declines.

Technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis

Short‑term technical signals (traders)

• Traders often require daily/weekly closes below key moving averages (50/200 SMA), increased VIX and expanding breadth deterioration before concluding a downtrend will continue.
• Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) crossing into oversold territory can show strong downward momentum but do not alone confirm trend exhaustion.

Fundamental measures for trend confirmation (investors)

• Sustained declines accompanied by weaker earnings growth, rising default rates, falling corporate buybacks and negative revisions to forward earnings estimates are stronger signals of a fundamental bear market.
• Macro deterioration — elongating unemployment, persistent inflation spikes and tightening credit conditions — supports the view that the market is still falling on a fundamental level.

Note: technical and fundamental signals complement each other. A technically defined downtrend that aligns with weakening fundamentals carries more weight.

Market behavior across asset classes during equity declines

Bonds and yields

• In risk‑off episodes, investors typically move toward Treasuries, pushing yields down on high‑quality long duration paper. Conversely, inflation or hawkish Fed expectations can push yields higher and pressure equities. Late‑2025 saw markets closely watching Fed minutes for clues on the path of rates (Reuters, Investopedia).

Commodities and precious metals

• Gold and silver often act as safe havens; however, they can be volatile. In December 2025, precious metals showed sharp moves — silver retracing after a spike, and gold pulling back from recent highs — illustrating that safe‑haven flows are not guaranteed and can be affected by liquidity and macro drivers.

Cryptocurrencies

• Crypto markets often amplify equity risk‑on/off moves and show higher volatility. Firms holding large crypto treasuries (e.g., Strategy/MSTR) add cross‑market linkages. As of Dec 2025, Bitcoin fell below $90k at times and weighed on sentiment for crypto‑exposed equities.

Common causes of sustained market declines

• Central bank tightening or unexpectedly hawkish policy guidance.
• Earnings disappointments and downward revisions to forward guidance.
• Concentrated sector collapses (for example, a sell‑off among large tech names that account for a large weight in major indices).
• Geopolitical shocks or rapid changes in commodity prices that impair corporate cash flows.
• Liquidity crises, forced deleveraging or margin calls that trigger systemic selling.

Each of these causes can act alone or in combination. For example, in late‑2025 Fed caution combined with concentrated tech weakness and firm‑specific dilution at heavily crypto‑exposed firms contributed to episodic declines.

Market signals that the decline may be ending

Technical reversal patterns

• Consistent, multi‑day breaks above the 50‑day moving average and recovery of the advance‑decline line.
• Formation of higher lows and higher highs on daily/weekly charts.
• Up days on rising volume with broad sector participation — that is, breadth improves when the market rises.

Macro / policy triggers

• Clear Fed easing signals or confirmed rate cuts can support risk assets.
• Improving economic data or a stabilization in earnings that reduces downside risk.
• Institutional re‑entry (renewed buybacks, large-scale allocations back into equities) can provide durable support.

Be mindful that markets sometimes produce false reversals; confirmation over multiple weeks is more reliable than short bursts.

Practical guidance for investors and traders (neutral, non‑advisory)

Short‑term traders

• Use defined risk (stop‑loss orders), disciplined position sizing and monitor volatility metrics (VIX and intraday volume).
• Consider hedging exposure with put options rather than outright selling positions if preserving long‑term exposure is a priority.
• Avoid overtrading on headline noise — focus on technical confirmations and liquidity conditions.

Long‑term investors

• Reassess asset allocation and rebalancing rules rather than attempting precise market timing.
• Dollar‑cost averaging can reduce the risk of buying a large position at a short‑term peak.
• Review fundamentals of holdings and maintain emergency liquidity to avoid forced selling in down markets.

Avoiding common mistakes

• Do not overreact to single‑day headlines. Major indexes can have sharp moves that reverse quickly, especially during holiday or thin trading periods.
• Avoid overreliance on a single indicator; combine price, breadth, volatility and macro context.
• Be cautious with margin/leverage during volatile periods — forced deleveraging can lock in losses.

Note: All operational suggestions above are informational and not personal investment advice.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

Q: How long do market corrections usually last? A: Corrections (declines of 10%–20%) historically last from a few weeks to several months on average; bear markets (>20% declines) can last longer. Duration depends on macro conditions, policy response and earnings trends.

Q: Are tech stocks driving the decline? A: In late‑2025, declines were often concentrated in large tech names, which can amplify index moves because of their weight. Concentration means indices can fall even if many smaller stocks remain stable.

Q: Should I sell everything now? A: This article does not provide personal investment advice. Decisions should be based on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial plan. Consider rebalancing and reviewing fundamentals rather than panic selling.

Q: How quickly can markets rebound? A: Rebounds can be swift — sometimes sharp V‑shaped recoveries occur within days — or they can be protracted. Look for breadth improvement and macro stabilization as stronger evidence of durable recovery.

Historical perspective and precedents

• Past corrections and bear markets show that confirmation matters: technical breakdowns accompanied by fundamental deterioration tend to be more persistent.
• Historically, many corrections resolve within a few months, while catastrophic systemic events or prolonged macro weakness have led to multi‑quarter bear markets.
• Comparing current indicators (breadth, yield curve, corporate earnings revisions) to historical episodes can help contextualize risk but cannot predict exact timing.

Data sources and reading the news — best practices

• Use multiple sources for confirmation: market data hubs (Reuters, CNBC, Investopedia), exchange data for index values, VIX and Treasury yields. As of Dec 30, 2025, several of these outlets published coordinated reports on late‑December moves.
• Watch company filings and official central bank releases (e.g., FOMC minutes) for verifiable, primary information.
• Avoid relying solely on headlines; check raw index values, volume data and breadth metrics to verify claims.
• For crypto and blockchain‑linked exposures, track on‑chain metrics (transaction counts, wallet growth) alongside equity data when companies have material crypto holdings.

References and further reading (selected retained sources)

• As of Dec 30, 2025, CNBC: coverage of consecutive down days for the S&P 500 and market moves.
• As of Dec 30, 2025, Investopedia: Markets News summary of late‑December index closes and macro context.
• Reuters: ongoing coverage of U.S. stock market headlines and Fed policy moves (late 2025).
• Investor's Business Daily (Dec 31, 2025): commentary on market near‑highs and futures.
• AP News: summaries of Wall Street pullbacks in December 2025.
• CNN Business: market data hub and articles on significant single‑day drops and sentiment shifts (e.g., Nov 13, 2025 coverage).
• Company and on‑chain sources for Strategy/MSTR: company filings, TradingView price data and CryptoQuant summaries (as referenced in late‑December 2025 reporting).

Practical tools and where Bitget fits in

• For real‑time price tracking and cross‑asset monitoring, use reliable data hubs and dashboards. Bitget’s platform offers market data and trading tools for crypto and derivatives, and Bitget Wallet can help you monitor on‑chain exposures if you hold crypto assets.
• If you track equities and crypto together, maintain separate watchlists for highly correlated names (for example, firms with large crypto treasuries) so you can see cross‑market contagion early.
• Use Bitget educational resources to learn risk management and to practice strategies in simulated environments.

Final recommendations and next steps

Further explore the indicators listed here before deciding whether the market is still falling in your own timeframe. For traders, prioritize stop‑loss discipline and volatility monitoring; for long‑term investors, focus on rebalancing and fundamentals. Use trusted news outlets and primary data (index values, VIX, Treasury yields, company filings) for verification. To monitor crypto‑equity linkages and on‑chain signals, consider Bitget Wallet and Bitget’s market tools to consolidate insights across asset classes.

Further exploration: track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq daily closes, check the advance‑decline line and VIX, review the Fed minutes and follow earnings revisions. If you want help setting up a watchlist or learning to read the key indicators above, explore Bitget’s educational guides and tools to get started.

References: News items and data quoted above are time‑sensitive. As noted in each section, specific reports cited date to late‑December 2025 (e.g., Dec 30, 2025 reporting from CNBC and Investopedia). Always verify with up‑to‑date market data before making decisions.