U.S. Actions Drive Crypto Market’s Unstoppable Volatility

The Impact of U.S. Supreme Court’s Tariffs Decision

The first major event under scrutiny is the anticipated announcement from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding customs tariffs. Last April, President Donald Trump implemented tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, presented as a means of boosting economic growth. The court is set to evaluate the legal basis for these measures, a decision that carries weight not only for trade policy but also for financial markets.

Market-based indicators, such as the Polymarket prediction platform, suggest a 76% probability that the tariffs will be ruled unlawful. Should this scenario unfold, the U.S. Treasury might consider refunding part of the approximately $600 billion collected so far. This possibility could trigger sudden shifts in investor sentiment, impacting stocks and cryptocurrencies alike.

The potential cancellation of tariffs might reinforce perceptions of weakening growth expectations. A constricted risk appetite could unravel short-term positions, potentially accelerating the search for direction in the cryptocurrency market.

Employment Data and Options Maturity Stir the Waters

The second focal point is the unemployment rate data set to be released in the U.S. The market consensus anticipates a decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. Any increase beyond expectations could heighten recession fears, while stronger employment data might further diminish hopes for interest rate cuts.

Current pricing reflects a 13% probability of a rate cut in January. Robust employment data could remove this possibility entirely, reinforcing expectations for tight monetary policy. This scenario is perceived as a macroeconomic signal that could exert pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, on the same day, the expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options could trigger short-term movements. According to Deribit data, options worth over $2.2 billion will expire. Bitcoin options amount to approximately $1.89 billion, with a maximum pain point at $90,000, slightly above the current price. On the Ethereum front, $396 million in options is concentrated around the $3,100 level.