December US CPI Outlook: Anticipated Correction Ahead

Impact of Government Shutdown on CPI Data

The extended government shutdown, the longest in history, disrupted data collection and resulted in an unexpectedly weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for November. Many of these irregularities are anticipated to correct themselves in the December data. While we foresee a faster monthly increase in consumer prices for December compared to the artificially low pace in November, the annual rates for both headline and core CPI—projected at 2.7% and 2.8% respectively—are expected to stay below their September levels. This suggests that inflation is continuing its downward trend.

The 43-day shutdown caused the Bureau of Labor Statistics to use September's price figures for October, contributing to these anomalies.