Bitget UEX Daily | Non-Farm Eve Market Split; Trump Picks Fed Chair; CME Hikes Precious Metals Margins (Jan 08, 2026)

I. Hot News

Fed Developments

Trump Has Decided on Fed Chair Nominee Trump revealed in an interview that he has selected the next Fed chair, but did not disclose the name.

• Prediction markets show Kevin Warsh at 41% probability, Kevin Hassett at 39%.
• The new chair will face presidential pressure for significant rate cuts. This move heightens concerns over Fed independence, potentially amplifying market volatility in expectations for easing policies.

International Commodities

Goldman Survey Shows Investor Pessimism on Oil at Decade-High Institutional investors' bearish sentiment on crude oil intensifies due to geopolitical factors.

• Over 59% of respondents are pessimistic, nearing the January 2016 low.
• 2025 oil prices expected to underperform, dragged by OPEC+ production increases and record U.S. output. Oversupply expectations widen, potentially further limiting rebound space in the energy sector.

Macroeconomic Policies

Trump Orders Purchase of $200 Billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities Trump directed the purchase of $200 billion in MBS to lower housing costs and support mid-term elections.

• Execution method and entity not specified, based on retained cash from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
• Aimed at suppressing mortgage rates to stimulate homebuying demand. This policy may provide short-term boost to the real estate market but exacerbate long-term fiscal pressures.

II. Market Review

• Gold: Up 0.25% to 4,472.00 USD/oz, showing mild gains amid market opening.
• Silver: Up 1.01% to 75.90 USD/oz, displaying intraday rebound.
• Crude Oil: Up 0.48% to 58.04 USD/bbl, with intraday range of 57.98-58.45.
• USD: Up 0.03% to 98.96, benefiting from market expectation adjustments.

U.S. Stock Indices Performance

• Dow: Up 0.55% to 49,266.11 points, continuing mild recovery.
• S&P 500: Up 0.01% to 6,921.46 points, barely holding steady amid volatility.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.44% to 23,480.02 points, dragged by the tech sector.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple: Down 0.50% to $259.04, affected by rising component costs and sector rotation.
• Microsoft: Down over 1%, sustained pressure from AI investments.
• NVIDIA: Down over 2%, heightened uncertainty from overseas client prepayment requirements.
• Amazon: Up nearly 2%, supported by strong e-commerce business.
• Tesla: Up over 1%, positive developments in electric vehicles.
• Google: Up over 1%, strong growth in Gemini users.
• Meta: Down 0.41% to $645.98, dominated by AI spending concerns. Overall declines mainly due to tech stock rotation toward small-caps and energy, driven by increased sensitivity to economic cycles.

Sector Movements Observation

Small-Cap Sector Up 1.11%

• Representative Stock: Russell 2000 Index, hitting all-time high.
• Driving Factors: Investors shifting to cyclical stocks, avoiding high-valuation tech.

Energy Sector Up Significantly

• Representative Stock: General Motors, down nearly 2% but sector overall benefits from oil price rebound.
• Driving Factors: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data exceeding expectations.

Drone Concept Up Strongly

• Representative Stocks: UAVS up 45%, AVAV up over 8%.
• Driving Factors: Trump's plan to significantly increase military budget.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Intel - Trump Meets CEO

Event Overview: After Trump's meeting with Intel's CEO, he posted about a "pleasant discussion," leading to over 2% after-hours gain in Intel's stock. The company launched its first sub-2nm process technology, fully produced in the U.S., with the government profiting hundreds of billions from its stake. Market Interpretation: Institutions like Goldman Sachs view this as a key signal for chip manufacturing reshoring to the U.S. Investment Insights: Policy support may enhance Intel's competitiveness; monitor opportunities in domestic supply chains.

2. Google - Market Cap Nears $4 Trillion

Event Overview: Google's market cap approaches the $4 trillion mark, with Gemini traffic surging 567% year-over-year. The company plans to integrate more Gemini AI features into Gmail, such as auto-generating email summaries. Market Interpretation: Morgan Stanley highlights AI user growth surpassing ChatGPT, reinforcing search dominance. Investment Insights: AI integration likely to drive ad revenue; strong long-term growth potential.

3. Apple - Accelerates CEO Succession Plan

Event Overview: Apple is speeding up succession for Tim Cook, with hardware engineering chief John Ternus as a top candidate. Cook seeks to reduce workload, amid internal debates on needing an innovator or operator. Market Interpretation: Barclays notes succession uncertainty may suppress valuation short-term but remains bullish on hardware iterations. Investment Insights: Smooth leadership transition is key; watch impact from new product cycles.

4. NVIDIA - Requires Full Prepayment from Overseas Clients

Event Overview: NVIDIA demands full prepayment for H200 AI chips from overseas clients, with orders exceeding 2 million units; TSMC accelerates production. Stock fell over 2% after hours. Market Interpretation: UBS points to heightened regulatory uncertainty but strong demand supporting long-term outlook. Investment Insights: Supply chain adjustments may cause short-term volatility; AI chip demand remains core driver.

5. General Motors - Q4 Massive Write-Downs

Event Overview: GM records $6 billion write-down in EV business and $1.1 billion in non-EV costs for Q4, totaling $7.1 billion. Warns of potential performance impact from emission rule changes. Market Interpretation: Citigroup sees increased cost control challenges but deems EV transition essential. Investment Insights: Rising regulatory risks; monitor EV business recovery path.

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