Myriad Moves: Traders Anticipate Zcash Recovery, Yet Remain Skeptical of a New Bitcoin Record

Crypto Market Sentiment Shifts as New Year Optimism Fades

As the new year began, the cryptocurrency market experienced a surge of enthusiasm, with major tokens rebounding sharply. Bitcoin soared past $94,000, while Ethereum approached the $3,300 mark earlier in the week.

However, this upward momentum quickly lost steam, leading to a pullback in prices. As a result, participants on Myriad have adopted a more cautious outlook regarding the future of key cryptocurrencies.

Below, we explore some of the most active prediction markets on Myriad this week, focusing on whether Bitcoin will reach a new record high, Ethereum’s next price direction, and the future of Zcash following significant changes among its developers.

Note: Myriad Markets is operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt.

Will Bitcoin Set a New Record Before July?

• Market Opens: January 1
• Market Closes: June 30
• Trading Volume: $9,810
• Latest Odds: View the "new BTC all-time high before July?" market on Myriad

On Monday, Bitcoin climbed to $94,000, marking its highest point in a month. Yet, the excitement was short-lived as the price soon dropped below $90,000 amid a wave of liquidations.

This decline, coupled with Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain upward momentum, has led Myriad traders to adopt a bearish stance on the likelihood of a new all-time high before July.

By Thursday, the probability assigned to Bitcoin surpassing $126,000 before July had fallen to just 21%—a decrease of about 6.5% from the previous week. The coin remains 29% below its October peak of $126,080.

Despite the prevailing pessimism, some industry experts remain optimistic. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in late December that Bitcoin would remain range-bound before potentially surging to $200,000 by March, far exceeding its current record.

Meanwhile, market analysis suggests Bitcoin is still navigating a challenging technical pattern.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, told Decrypt he also expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high within the first half of the year.

Will the experts or the broader market prove correct?

Looking Ahead

Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory may hinge on the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27-28.

Ethereum: Rally to $4,000 or Drop to $2,500?

• Market Opens: November 5
• Market Closes: Open until resolved
• Trading Volume: $214,000
• Latest Odds: Check the "Ethereum's next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?" market on Myriad

One of Myriad’s longest-running prediction markets asks whether Ethereum will first reach $4,000 or fall to $2,500. Since November, Ethereum has fluctuated between these two price points, at one stage coming within $200 of the lower target.

Initially, the odds heavily favored a drop to $2,500, reaching 81% in November. Since then, sentiment has shifted, and the market has oscillated between bullish and bearish expectations in line with Ethereum’s price movements.

As of Thursday, traders are slightly negative, with about 53% expecting a decline to $2,500. This is an 18% increase from Tuesday, when Ethereum had rallied to nearly $3,300, according to CoinGecko.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s recent gains were short-lived, and the asset’s weekly increase has narrowed to just 3.5%. Currently, Ethereum is trading at $3,096, which is 19% above the $2,500 level that most predictors are watching.

Despite the market’s slight bearish tilt, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, asserted in December that Ethereum had already found its bottom. BitMine continues to accumulate ETH, anticipating a significant price increase—potentially as high as $250,000.

Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 before making a move higher? Lee is doubtful, but many predictors disagree.

What’s Next?

As with Bitcoin, Ethereum’s price could be influenced by decisions made at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Zcash: Surge to $550 or Slide to $250?

• Market Opens: January 8
• Market Closes: Open until resolved
• Trading Volume: $907
• Latest Odds: View the "Zcash next move: pump to $550 or dump to $250?" market on Myriad

While leading cryptocurrencies struggled in late 2023, privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) captured traders’ attention. Over the past year, ZEC has surged more than 700%, recently trading at $429 and briefly exceeding $700 in early November. Despite these gains, it remains 86.5% below its 2021 peak of $3,191.

The current question on Myriad is whether Zcash will next rally to $550 or fall to $250.

This debate comes amid a sharp price drop in the last 24 hours, following news that the entire Electric Capital Company team—key contributors to Zcash’s privacy features—departed after a governance dispute with a nonprofit in the ZEC ecosystem. The team plans to form a new company to continue their work.

After the news broke, ZEC’s price fell over 9%, briefly reaching $384 before recovering.

Helius Labs CEO and Zcash advocate Mert Mumtaz described the sell-off as an overreaction and a misunderstanding, emphasizing that the development team remains committed to Zcash. “A startup or tech company can innovate and scale, while a nonprofit may not be as effective,” Mumtaz explained on the Fomo Hour show, referring to the team’s decision to form a new company.

Currently, 62% of predictors expect Zcash to climb to $550, a notable increase from earlier in the day when opinions were evenly split. With ZEC trading at $430, it would need to rise 28% to reach $550, or fall 42% to hit $250.

Looking Forward

This prediction market will remain open until a clear outcome is reached.