Bitunix Analyst: Slowing Employment Increases Easing Expectations, Tonight's PMI May Serve as a Short-term Catalyst for Gold and Crypto Assets

BlockBeats News, January 6, research institutions have pointed out that the structural cooling trend in the US labor market is deepening, with the unemployment rate, quit rate, and wage growth all weakening simultaneously, indicating a slowdown on the demand side rather than short-term fluctuations. This means that even if the economy does not enter a recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path than currently priced in by the market over the next one to two years to avoid "over-tightening" policy. On the macro level, if real interest rates fall faster than expected, the US dollar will almost inevitably come under medium-term pressure, and capital will seek assets with anti-inflation and currency credit risk hedging properties. Gold will thus regain structural support, and this logic is gradually spilling over into the crypto market as well.

Bitunix analyst's view: Against the dual macro backdrop of slowing employment and weaker PMI data, the market has already begun to price in easing risk premiums in advance. The bullish structure of gold is solidified by expectations of falling interest rates, while the attractiveness of crypto assets is being gradually repriced. If PMI falls below expectations, it will strengthen safe-haven and easing bets in the short term, potentially triggering a rapid rise in gold and increased volatility in the crypto market. In the medium term, it will reinforce the easing narrative, benefiting the valuation recovery of risk assets, but caution is also needed regarding repeated trading of capital in US dollar liquidity and volatile assets.