Bitcoin recently captured attention as it briefly surpassed the $90,000 mark, differentiating itself from past bear cycles with its current market behavior. Moving within an upward narrowing band for weeks, Bitcoin demonstrates absorbed volatility rather than sharp sell-offs. The protection of long-term technical thresholds weakens potential crash scenarios. Market participants believe we are entering a period where traditional bear market patterns do not repeat.
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Historically, Bitcoin followed a similar technical trajectory during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles. In these instances, Bitcoin fell below its 100-week simple and exponential moving averages, followed by sharp declines of 40% to 55% within weeks. These crosses signaled not the beginning, but rather the most destructive phase of the bear market, paving the way for the liquidation of weak players in the market.
However, the final weekly close of 2025 defied this tradition. Bitcoin managed to stay above levels lost in past cycles, and a threatening bear cross did not evolve into a selling wave. The lack of a downward momentum indicates the market’s rejection of the expected breakdown. Technically failed bear signals often point to robust underlying demand.
This scenario doesn’t confirm a bull market but highlights the invalidation of one of the most significant bearish triggers observed for a long time. The market structure remains balanced without entering the panic selling phase seen in previous cycles.
Potential Short-Term Scenarios for Bitcoin
A 40% pullback would require Bitcoin to lose several strong support areas consecutively. Dropping below the 100-week averages on a weekly basis and permanent pricing in the recent demand zones are prerequisites for this scenario. Currently, none of these conditions are met.
In the short term, momentum indicators signal caution. The breakout of the symmetric triangle formation seen in the four-hour chart propelled the price to the $90,500 region, with RSI and Stochastic RSI entering overbought territory. Increasing selling pressure could push prices below $90,000 again, while around $89,500 emerges as a potential demand area.
Conversely, if the price remains above the triangle’s former descending trendline and holds above $90,500, a new range toward $93,000–$93,650 might open. This development could confirm a stronger technical base as we enter 2026.
According to data from , at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,468, reflecting a 2.13% increase over the past 24 hours.
