A review of epic options expiration market trends in previous years: significant increase in volatility, often accompanied by accelerated one-sided moves

BlockBeats News, December 26, at 16:00 today (UTC+8), Bitcoin will see its largest ever annual settlement of $23.7 billions. A review of market performance after settlements in previous years and quarters is as follows:

December 29, 2023 (annual major settlement), notional value about $11 billions, max pain around $42,000.

Before expiry: The market was in an extremely suppressed state, with prices consolidating narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000.

After expiry: The "cage" suppressing volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly broke out with volume in the following days, kicking off a unilateral rally towards $48,000 at the start of 2024.

March 29, 2024 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $15 billions, max pain around $65,000.

Before expiry: The market fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000 amid BTC halving expectations, with high volatility and active hedging activities causing short-term suppression.

After expiry: After gamma hedging was released, BTC quickly broke upward, pushing prices to new highs above $70,000 on the eve of the halving, entering an accelerated bull phase.

June 28, 2024 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $17 billions, max pain around $60,000.

Before expiry: The market entered a correction phase, with prices consolidating narrowly around $60,000, selling pressure increasing, and a clear gamma pinning effect.

After expiry: Short-term volatility increased after expiry, BTC dipped first and then rebounded, but overall maintained a correction trend without an immediate strong rally.

September 27, 2024 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $18 billions, max pain around $62,000.

Before expiry: Affected by Federal Reserve policies, prices consolidated between $55,000 and $65,000, with moderate liquidity and hedging compressing the range.

After expiry: Volatility increased after settlement, BTC broke upward, benefiting from rate cut expectations and starting a rebound rally towards $70,000.

December 27, 2024 (annual major settlement), notional value about $19.8 billions, max pain around $75,000.

Before expiry: At the bull market peak, prices fluctuated between $70,000 and $80,000, with a call option bias causing weak upward suppression, but holiday liquidity was thin.

After expiry: After hedging was released, BTC continued its bull market momentum, quickly breaking through $80,000, with year-end Christmas trading pushing prices even higher.

March 28, 2025 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $14 billions, max pain around $85,000.

Before expiry: With regulatory tailwinds, prices fluctuated between $80,000 and $90,000, sentiment was optimistic but short-term downside risks existed, and gamma provided a floor of support.

After expiry: Volatility increased after expiry, BTC broke above $85,000, kicking off a strong rally towards $100,000.

June 27, 2025 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $14.5 billions, max pain around $102,000.

Before expiry: Market sentiment was mixed, with large price fluctuations.

After expiry: There was a short-term correction after settlement, but the overall upward trend was maintained, with no extreme volatility observed.

August 29, 2025 (quarterly settlement), notional value about $13.8-14.5 billions, max pain around $116,000.

Before expiry: Holiday liquidity was thin, prices fluctuated between $110,000 and $120,000, and the gamma trap effect intensified.

After expiry: BTC briefly dipped below the max pain point and then quickly recovered, volatility increased but rebounded rapidly, continuing the bull market pattern.

December 26, 2025 (today's annual major settlement), notional value about $23.6 billions, max pain around $96,000.

Before expiry: Due to thin market liquidity during the Christmas holiday and rising precious metal prices, Bitcoin prices consolidated narrowly between $85,000 and $90,000, with strong gamma hedging sharply suppressing volatility.

After expiry: It is expected that after settlement the "cage" will disappear, market volatility will significantly increase, possibly breaking upward through the $90,000 range. Some analysts are optimistic about approaching $100,000, or even starting a New Year rally.