Bitunix Analyst: Mixed Nonfarm Payroll Data and Stalemate in Interest Rate Path Cause BTC to Drop and Consolidate

BlockBeats News, November 21, the U.S. Department of Labor released the September non-farm payrolls, with an increase of 119,000, far exceeding the market's estimate of 52,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, hitting a four-year high. This employment report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, became the last key data before the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The data itself is lagging and contradictory, further deepening policy divisions and making it difficult for the market to formulate a clear interest rate path. The latest federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen back to less than 40%, reflecting the market's rapidly cooling expectations for easing.

On the macro level, stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls should have been hawkish, but the sharp rise in the unemployment rate clearly shows internal structural weakness in the labor market, creating a "split" signal and causing greater divergence among policymakers when interpreting the strength of the economy. The lagging nature of this data also makes it harder for the market to confirm real economic momentum, leading to renewed demand for hedging in a high-interest-rate environment, and this uncertainty is quickly being reflected in risk assets.

In the crypto market, BTC is significantly suppressed by the $93,000 resistance and further dragged down by cooling rate cut expectations, with the price briefly dropping to around $85,000. Structurally, if it fails to hold $86,800, it may further test $80,200.

Bitunix analysts stated: In the vacuum of unclear interest rate and employment signals, the market is prone to amplified volatility, with short-term trading leaning towards sentiment-driven technical structures. It is recommended to focus on three points: 1) Whether subsequent labor market revision data will reverse the market's interpretation of economic weakness; 2) Whether the internal divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts will continue to widen; 3) Whether BTC's structure can hold its lows and re-challenge the upper end of the range as liquidity returns. These factors will dominate the price rhythm and risk appetite direction in the coming week.