Import Collapse Drives US Trade Balance Surge

While markets watch every macroeconomic signal to anticipate Fed movements, a major indicator just defied forecasts. The United States trade deficit fell by nearly 24 % in one month. In a global context of high tension, between renegotiated tariff agreements and disrupted supply chains, this unexpected decline raises strategic issues. It could also influence capital flows, reshape economic balances, and strengthen interest in decentralized assets like bitcoin.

The Fall of the U.S. Deficit

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a historic drop in the trade deficit, which fell from 78.4 to 59.6 billion dollars in August, a 23.9 % reduction in just one month, while Trump’s tariffs continue to sow chaos in the markets .

This movement is explained almost exclusively by a fall in imports, which dropped 5.1 %, marking their largest monthly decline in four months. Contrary to a classic cyclical dynamic, this correction reflects a direct response to the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Indeed, businesses reduced their foreign purchases after the new Trump tariffs took effect. This reduction perfectly summarizes the rapid reaction of the economic fabric to this protectionist turning point.

Thus, certain categories of goods were particularly affected due to their exposure to the new taxes. Among the most significant drops are :

• Non-monetary gold : targeted by a 39 % tariff imposed on Switzerland, one of the main suppliers of precious metals to the United States. Imports plunged, leading to a reduction in the bilateral deficit with Bern ;

• Capital goods : imports of technological equipment, including computer accessories and communication devices, recorded a noticeable decline ;

• Reversed anticipated flows : the previous month, companies massively imported in anticipation of tariff increases, which amplifies the observed decline effect in August.

These figures are not adjusted for inflation, but even corrected, the trend is the same: the goods trade deficit contracted to 83.7 billion dollars, its lowest level since late 2023. This sharp drop reflects less a structural improvement in the trade balance than a threshold effect caused by a change in the rules of the game. Exports, on the other hand, increased slightly, but this evolution remains marginal compared to the collapse of imports.

Towards a Geoeconomic Realignment ? The Agreement with Switzerland and Targeted Relocation

As trade tensions escalated, the United States and Switzerland quickly engaged in discussions to defuse the situation.

The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, stated in an interview with CNBC that Washington and Bern had “essentially reached an agreement” to reduce the tariff on Swiss gold from 39 % to 15 %.

“We will publish the details of the agreement today on the White House website,” he said, adding that the full terms would be made public on Friday. The stated goal of the U.S. administration is clear: to use these negotiations as leverage to attract more Swiss industrial activity on American soil. Greer specifically mentioned sectors like pharmaceuticals, gold foundry, and railway equipment as priority targets of this relocation strategy.

This agreement marks the end of a tense trade standoff, initiated when Trump unilaterally imposed a 39 % tariff, more than double that applied to European Union countries. Bern had been caught off guard, believing an agreement was already in place upstream.

In this context, Swiss industries, particularly watchmaking, precision mechanics, and scientific instruments sectors, were especially affected. The agreement obtained should, according to Greer, “allow these sectors to rebound and export again to the United States without punitive duties.”

This episode clearly illustrates the hardening of international trade relations, but also the United States’ desire to rebalance their trade balance via targeted partnerships rather than through generalized opening.

In the medium term, this dynamic could reshuffle some cards in global value chains. The American reindustrialization, favored by conditional trade agreements, could modify logistical flows, notably in precious metals and high technology.

In this uncertain climate, bitcoin regains its appeal as a safe haven, attracting investors seeking alternatives amid macroeconomic turmoil.

For financial markets, these changes are to be closely monitored, as they directly influence GDP calculations (the Fed of Atlanta’s GDPNow model anticipated a +0.57 point addition in Q3 from net exports, an estimate likely to be revised). It remains to be seen if this trade turning point will be confirmed in the coming months, while a strategic deal on rare earths could be signed before Thanksgiving .