Goldman Sachs: Even if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the overall impact on trade will be limited

Jinse Finance reported that Goldman Sachs pointed out that during the oral argument session, several U.S. Supreme Court justices questioned Trump's use of power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule that the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. Prediction markets now believe that the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs has dropped by about 10 percentage points. The final decision is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the government may need several months to refund the approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs that have already been collected. However, the government is likely to seek other legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, which means the overall impact on trade will remain limited. Any tariff reduction measures may only apply to smaller trading partners and are not expected to result in significant changes for major economies such as the EU. However, the process of refunds and temporary tariff gaps may trigger short-term market volatility. (Golden Ten Data)