When being the "chief trader" is not enough, is Trump going to "run the show" himself?

Trump's "Truth Predict" is not just a celebrity's business venture, but a strategic move to secure a position in the rapidly growing and increasingly mainstream-recognized emerging financial track of "prediction markets." As Wall Street's "regulars" rush to enter the field, Trump, who brings his own traffic and controversy, clearly does not want to miss this feast.

Written by: Zhao Ying

Source: Wallstreetcn

Trump is upgrading his influence in the financial markets from posting and calling trades to direct participation. The U.S. president, jokingly referred to by outsiders as the "Chief Trader," is now preparing to truly "open shop" through his company—venturing into the prediction market business.

According to the latest media reports, Trump Media & Technology Group announced on Tuesday that it will launch the prediction market service Truth Predict on its social platform Truth Social through a partnership with Crypto.com. This service will allow users to bet on the outcomes of events such as sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends, and plans to expand globally after meeting regulatory requirements.

The timing of this move is quite subtle. In recent years, Trump himself and his family members have repeatedly sparked suspicion due to stock price fluctuations and alleged insider trading. From stock surges before family members joined companies to Trump himself calling to "buy" before tariff policy changes, a series of events have made the market highly sensitive to trading behaviors within his camp.

Prediction markets are becoming one of the hottest new tracks on Wall Street. According to data from research platform Dune, last week, prediction market trading volume hit a record high of over $2.3 billion. The New York Stock Exchange parent company Intercontinental Exchange just invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch related contracts by the end of the year. The entry of traditional financial giants is pushing this once "digital casino" marginal market into the mainstream.

Truth Predict: From "Social Platform" to "Prediction Market"

Trump Media & Technology Group's entry into the prediction market is a continuation of its deep-binding strategy with the cryptocurrency industry.

The company will launch the prediction market service in cooperation with cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com through its Truth Social social platform, streaming platform Truth+, and fintech brand Truth.Fi. The service will first undergo Beta testing on Truth Social, followed by a full rollout in the United States. Trump Media plans to expand the service to global markets after meeting all necessary requirements.

Prediction markets allow users to profit by predicting the outcomes of events such as sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends. Since last year's U.S. presidential election, this type of event-based contract trading has gained strong momentum. As market attention grows, prediction markets are being seen as strong contenders for broader recognition in the financial circle, with some experts believing they are more accurate than traditional polls in highly competitive scenarios.

Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek stated: "Prediction markets are expected to become a tens of billions of dollars industry." This is not the first cooperation between the two parties. Earlier this year, Trump Media and Crypto.com reached an agreement with a blank check acquisition company to launch a new joint venture, adopting a Treasury-like strategy to accumulate the native token CRO of the cryptocurrency platform, further deepening Trump's ties with the cryptocurrency industry.

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction market platforms globally, have attracted significant attention from venture capital firms and other investors in recent months, consolidating the coverage and participation of prediction markets.

The Shadow of the "Chief Trader": Lingering Insider Trading Suspicions

As the Trump camp enters the prediction market, doubts about abnormal trading activities involving his family members and related companies have never ceased.

In recent years, a series of companies related to Trump and his inner circle have seen unusual trading activity before major personnel or policy announcements, sparking suspicions of market manipulation and insider trading.

One of the most notable incidents was the sharp fluctuation of the U.S. stock market due to tariff policies. About four hours before announcing the suspension of additional tariffs, Trump posted in all caps on his social platform Truth Social: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT." Although DJT is also his own initials, it is also the stock ticker for Trump Media. That day, DJT's stock price closed up 22.67%, and the value of Trump's holdings was estimated to have increased by $415 million.

Similar situations have occurred multiple times. In November last year, the stock price of drone manufacturer Unusual Machines nearly tripled in the four weeks before announcing the hiring of Donald Trump Jr., with average daily trading volume surging from 93,000 shares to 290,000 shares. In February this year, fintech group Dominari Holdings, headquartered in Trump Tower, saw its stock price soar by 580% in the six weeks before announcing that Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump would join its advisory board.

These suspicions are not isolated. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a congresswoman closely associated with Trump, as well as family members of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, have also drawn attention for their precisely timed trades. These events continue to ferment, fueling ongoing doubts about the Trump camp using information advantages to influence the market.

Prediction Markets Booming: From "Digital Casino" to Wall Street's New Favorite

Trump's entry comes at a time when prediction markets are transforming from a niche concept to Wall Street's new favorite. According to data from research platform Dune, last week, global weekly trading volume in prediction markets hit a record high of over $2 billion.

The hype is directly translating into valuations, with emerging platforms Polymarket and Kalshi leading the wave. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform, reportedly reached a valuation close to $15 billion after receiving a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. Kalshi, the first event contract exchange in the U.S. regulated by the CFTC, went viral on social media for its real-time mayoral election odds billboard in New York, and its cultural influence even extended to the well-known cartoon "South Park."

Traditional financial giants have also entered the field. The world's largest derivatives exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, plans to launch financial contracts linked to sports events and economic indicators by the end of the year. This move, along with ICE's investment in Polymarket and Nasdaq's exploration of asset tokenization, all indicate that prediction markets and their underlying tokenization technology are moving from the margins to the center of the financial system.

Against this backdrop, Trump's "Truth Predict" is no longer just a celebrity's business venture, but a strategic move to secure a position in a rapidly growing and increasingly mainstream-recognized emerging financial track. As Wall Street's "regulars" rush to enter the field, Trump, who brings his own traffic and controversy, clearly does not want to miss this feast.