Polymarket plans to restart its activity in the United States in November

After three years of forced exile, the crypto prediction platform Polymarket could reopen its doors to American traders in the coming weeks. A major regulatory breakthrough that would radically transform the landscape of prediction markets in the United States.

A report announces Polymarket’s return to the American market

Polymarket is about to take a decisive step. According to Bloomberg, the blockchain-based platform aims to return to American soil before the end of November. 

This announcement marks the culmination of a long journey that began in 2022, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) forced the company to withdraw from the American market for operating an unregistered derivatives platform.

The regulatory green light arrived last September. Indeed, the Commission issued a no-action letter after Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX, a regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. 

This strategic move allowed founder Shayne Coplan to build the legal infrastructure necessary to operate under American regulatory supervision.

The platform does not plan to return empty-handed. It currently displays a waiting list on its website with the note “coming soon for American traders.” The initial focus will be on sports betting, a cautious approach that allows it to test the waters before expanding its offerings.

This strategy of gradual reintegration demonstrates a new maturity. Rather than rushing in headlong, Polymarket favors a measured approach that should reassure American regulators. The timing is also calculated: the launch of the POLY token is only planned for 2026, giving the platform time to consolidate its position in the American market.

An explosive valuation driven by institutional confidence

The numbers are dizzying. Indeed, in June 2025, Polymarket was valued at one billion dollars after a $200 million fundraising round. 

A few months later, estimates now speak of $10 billion if the return to the United States materializes. This meteoric rise reflects the massive interest of investors in prediction markets.

The $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is the strongest signal. This contribution values Polymarket at around $8 billion and definitively validates the business model of blockchain-based prediction markets. 

Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of ICE, sees in this deal “a blend between an institution founded in 1792 and a visionary company revolutionizing decentralized finance.”

Operational performance justifies this enthusiasm. Indeed, during the 2024 American presidential election, Polymarket handled more than $2 billion in monthly volume. Its predictions outperformed traditional polls in accuracy, turning the platform into a media and financial reference. Even after the election, volumes remained above one billion per month.

Competition is also intensifying. Kalshi, valued at $2 billion, obtained authorization to offer contracts on political events after winning its legal battle against the CFTC. 

This victory created a favorable precedent for the whole sector. Even more surprisingly, Trump Media and Technology Group announced Tuesday its intention to offer prediction markets via Truth Social, in partnership with Crypto.com.

A revival fraught with pitfalls

The return of Polymarket to the United States will not be a smooth ride. The platform now faces a major challenge: distinguishing legitimate users from “farmers” who multiply sophisticated techniques to maximize their gains before the POLY token launch. These speculators have significantly refined their methods in 2025, making detection much more complex.

This race for the token creates a paradox. The more Polymarket attracts attention, the more it must innovate its detection systems to preserve fairness. A failure could taint the POLY launch with controversies and compromise the hard-earned credibility. The platform has recently cracked down on these token collectors, aware of the stakes.

The regulatory environment remains evolving. While Kalshi’s legal battle against the CFTC opened favorable breaches, there is no guarantee authorities will not harden their position in response to the sector’s explosive growth. Polymarket will need to navigate cautiously through this constantly changing landscape.

Despite these challenges, Polymarket has solid assets: ICE’s financial support , proven technology, a loyal international community, and a reputation for accuracy. Its return to the United States could sustainably redefine the prediction market industry and accelerate institutional adoption of blockchain-based solutions.