Ethereum Value Forecast: $650M Bet by Short Sellers as Trump-China Tariff Talks Loom

Key Points

• Ethereum’s price surpassed $4,000, influenced by optimism surrounding Trump’s Asia visit.
• Ethereum treasury firms have surpassed Bitcoin in terms of supply dominance.

The price of Ethereum (ETH) exceeded the $4,000 mark on Sunday, October 26. This was fueled by the anticipation of Trump’s visit to Asia, which included scheduled trade talks with Xi Jinping in Korea on Friday, October 30.

During the market dip in mid-October, Ethereum treasury firms maintained a robust accumulation outlook. They surpassed their Bitcoin counterparts in terms of circulating supply dominance. As the market recovered over the weekend, Ethereum remains a subject of intense speculation. Bear traders focused their leverage positions around the $4,100 mark on Sunday.

Ethereum’s Price Rise and Trump’s Asia Visit

On Sunday, October 26, Ethereum’s price rebounded to $4,099. This was a 10% increase from its seven-day low of $3,811 recorded the previous Wednesday. The rebound mirrored the broader market gains, where all top 10 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) , SOL, and XRP, reported consecutive green days over the weekend.

Ethereum’s rebound was largely attributed to Trump’s Asia visit. He began his tour on a positive note by overseeing a peace treaty signing between Cambodia and Thailand in Malaysia on Saturday. This eased geopolitical tensions ahead of the highly anticipated trade talks with China’s Xi Jinping, scheduled for Friday, October 30.

Ethereum Treasury Firms Surpass Bitcoin in Supply Dominance

Despite the price volatility of Ethereum in October, Ethereum treasury firms led by Tom Lee’s Bitmine (BMNR) maintained an aggressive accumulation pace. Notably, data from Artemis shows that publicly-listed firms holding Ethereum have now surpassed their Bitcoin counterparts in terms of supply dominance.

On October 23, the total Ethereum supply held by Digital Asset Treasury firms reached 3.2 million ETH, outpacing Bitcoin’s corporate investors, which collectively hold 640,040 BTC. This accounts for 0.36% of the total 19 million BTC in circulation.

This indicates that the demand for Ethereum Treasury continues to surpass Bitcoin in 2025. This was boosted by the crypto regulatory framework and Ethereum ETF staking approval in 2025.

Ethereum received praise after its Proof-of-Stake (PoS) transition significantly reduced its energy consumption (by 99%). This also introduced a yield-bearing feature, making it more attractive to global conglomerates and portfolio managers with sustainable and clean energy mandates.

Art Malkov, strategic advisor at Electroneum, an eco-friendly blockchain, provided insights affirming that yield is the more attractive factor for corporate treasuries and institutional investors. He stated that institutions discuss yield in every conversation, but mention energy efficiency only when compliance teams are present.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Faces Major Resistance at $4,150

On Sunday, October 26, Ethereum’s price posted a 3% gain, stabilizing near $4,077. However, derivatives market data from Coinglass indicates that most new Ethereum contracts opened on Sunday were bearish.

Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume rose 54%, while open interest increased by 5.88%. The long-to-short ratio fell to 0.82, indicating that more short contracts were opened than long ones. Short contracts exceeding longs during a rally often suggest investors are preparing for a potential price reversal.

With Trump’s meeting with China and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision on the horizon, traders appear to be hedging against potential downside risks. These events could trigger large-scale crypto liquidations, as seen in previous weeks.

In terms of Ethereum price projections for the upcoming week, bears have concentrated roughly $650 million in short contracts around the $4,150 level. This accounts for 76% of the $840 million in total short leverage deployed within the past 24 hours.

If Ethereum breaks this resistance, it faces relatively lighter opposition until the $4,240 zone, where another significant supply cluster lies. Conversely, failure to break above $4,100 could trigger liquidations, dragging Ethereum prices back toward short-term support near $3,911, where bulls have deployed approximately $1.5 billion in long Ethereum contracts.