Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnWeb3SquareMore
Trade
Spot
Buy and sell crypto with ease
Margin
Amplify your capital and maximize fund efficiency
Onchain
Going Onchain, without going Onchain!
Convert & block trade
Convert crypto with one click and zero fees
Explore
Launchhub
Gain the edge early and start winning
Copy
Copy elite trader with one click
Bots
Simple, fast, and reliable AI trading bot
Trade
USDT-M Futures
Futures settled in USDT
USDC-M Futures
Futures settled in USDC
Coin-M Futures
Futures settled in cryptocurrencies
Explore
Futures guide
A beginner-to-advanced journey in futures trading
Futures promotions
Generous rewards await
Overview
A variety of products to grow your assets
Simple Earn
Deposit and withdraw anytime to earn flexible returns with zero risk
On-chain Earn
Earn profits daily without risking principal
Structured Earn
Robust financial innovation to navigate market swings
VIP and Wealth Management
Premium services for smart wealth management
Loans
Flexible borrowing with high fund security
10x Research: The decline in purchasing power of digital treasury companies and the selling of whales are limiting the rise of Bitcoin

10x Research: The decline in purchasing power of digital treasury companies and the selling of whales are limiting the rise of Bitcoin

CointimeCointime2025/10/21 03:48
By:Cointime

 10x Research posted on the X platform that the significant consolidation of Bitcoin will not last forever. Bitcoin's performance is not driven by cycles, but rather by how much new capital enters the market to offset exiting funds. Unlike gold, the price of Bitcoin depends more on the net new demand for actual inflows of assets rather than interest rate expectations. Monitoring the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin provides a strong advantage for predicting the next direction of the market.

The current market narrative is mainly shaped by two dominant crypto themes, and since early summer this year, we have already taken the lead in grasping these two themes. The core theme is that Digital Asset Treasury companies are depleting their purchasing power, while the selling pressure from traditional holders temporarily limits the upward potential of Bitcoin.

We have long anticipated that Bitcoin's volatility will contract after the momentum brought by the GENIUS Act in the U.S. fades, allowing the market to enter an "air layer" during the summer recess of Congress. The slowdown in news flow is expected to suppress volatility, compress the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and limit aggressive stock sales and additional Bitcoin purchases by companies like MicroStrategy, naturally restricting the upward potential of Bitcoin. Our prediction that MicroStrategy would undergo a significant repricing relative to Bitcoin has come true, with its net asset value (NAV) compressed to only 1.2 times.

At the time of these analyses, digital asset treasury companies are still considered untouchable, praised by service provider research teams, and magnified by the media long before the market realizes the vulnerabilities we have identified. MicroStrategy now only purchases a few tens of millions of dollars at a time, not billions – a scale too small to convince investors that new funds are driving the next round of Bitcoin's rise.

The second narrative limiting the rise of Bitcoin is that the market has realized that traditional wallets are selling billions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin – essentially selling to meet ETF demand. We identified this dynamic early in our report "Who is Really Impacting Bitcoin Prices?" on June 20, 2025, followed by "How Smart Money Quietly Limits Bitcoin's Upside – How Traders Should Respond" on June 26, 2025, and "Just Moved $8.6 Billion of Dormant Bitcoin – What it Means and How to Trade" on July 5, 2025. It took the market some time to catch up with this narrative, but ultimately the drivers exhausted reasons to maintain bullish arguments.

Since June, our analysis shows that the selling volume of these traditional holders only matches the absorptive capacity of ETFs and new market funds, avoiding a market collapse but creating a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin's volatility is destined to decrease – the optimal strategy is to sell volatility, as prices are likely to remain range-bound.

Until recently, selling volatility has been one of the most profitable strategies over the past few months. Despite leveraged flash crashes, Bitcoin is still around $110,000.

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

Interview with Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar: We Sold All Our Bitcoin and Switched Entirely to Ethereum

A monologue from an ETH Maxi.

ForesightNews 深度2025/10/21 07:22
Interview with Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar: We Sold All Our Bitcoin and Switched Entirely to Ethereum

Three Major Questions Amid the Boom of Prediction Markets: Insider Trading, Compliance, and Lack of Chinese-Language Narratives

Prediction markets are becoming the focus of community discussions; however, beneath the immense spotlight, several major questions and concerns are gradually emerging.

Chaincatcher2025/10/21 06:35
Three Major Questions Amid the Boom of Prediction Markets: Insider Trading, Compliance, and Lack of Chinese-Language Narratives

Wintermute founder on "1011" crash: The market needs to introduce a circuit breaker mechanism, no altcoin rally expected in the short term

For exchanges and market makers, keeping retail investors trading continuously, engaging in repeated speculation, and retaining them long-term is far more profitable than "flushing out retail investors once a year."

BlockBeats2025/10/21 06:34
Wintermute founder on "1011" crash: The market needs to introduce a circuit breaker mechanism, no altcoin rally expected in the short term