Analysis: Whale groups remain stable this cycle, and an 80% bear market drop may no longer occur

On October 17, on-chain analyst Murphy released data showing that, as of today, whale wallets holding at least 100 BTC collectively own 12.17 million BTC, accounting for 61% of the total circulating supply. The number of BTC held by whales at the top of the 2021 bull market was similar to the current level, while at the top of the 2017 bull market it was around 10 million. In this cycle, many old OGs have handed over their chips to new institutions, resulting in a shift in the market participant structure. However, whether whales remain consistently optimistic or become fearful and anxious will still determine the transition between BTC bull and bear cycles. From 2017 to 2018, after BTC price reached $19,587 and began to retrace, whales realized daily losses of roughly $1 billion. Continuous, large-scale, and cost-agnostic sell-offs left the market with no time to recover, resulting in a bear market that lasted for a year and saw an 80% decline. From 2021 to 2022, the scale of daily realized losses reached a new level. On May 19, whales realized daily losses of $3 billion, and during the Luna crash, there was a terrifying record of $4 billion in a single day. In the previous cycle, consecutive daily realized losses exceeding $2 billion essentially marked the end of the bull market cycle. In the current cycle, on August 5, 2024, there was a single-day realized loss of $2 billion, which is so far the most severe panic sell-off of this cycle. In February and April 2025, influenced by Trump’s renewed tariff war, there were single-day losses of $1.1 billion and $800 million, respectively, which were much less severe than in August 2024. Recently, during the 1011 crash, BTC whales showed unusual composure and calm, with daily realized losses of only $400 million. The mentality and behavior of whales have become more stable, and the previous “year-long, 80% decline” bear market may no longer occur.