Dogecoin Price Eyes 20% Rally as Breakout Setup Builds on Holder Confidence

Dogecoin has been quietly grinding higher. The coin trades near $0.25, up 17% in the past month and over 50% in three months, showing a strong recovery even after a 2% daily dip. The Dogecoin price rally isn’t loud; it’s steady, and on-chain data suggests that conviction among holders is deepening.

With both older and newer wallets adding to their supply, and a bullish chart structure forming, the Dogecoin price could soon attempt a 20% move toward $0.32 and beyond.

Dormant Coins and Active Holders Strengthen the Setup

Two key on-chain metrics point to growing confidence among Dogecoin investors.

The Spent Coins Age Band, which measures how many coins from different age groups are being moved, has plunged nearly 88% — from 486.7 million DOGE on September 16 to just 58.5 million on October 6. In plain terms, fewer coins are leaving wallets. That includes coins held for as little as a week to as long as a few years.

When the number of spent coins falls while prices rise, as is the case with Dogecoin, it often signals that holders believe the trend will continue — they’d rather hold than sell.

Fewer DOGE Coins Are Being Moved: Santiment

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At the same time, HODL Waves, which track how long coins stay unmoved, show that both short- and long-term holders are increasing their share of supply.

The 1-week to 1-month group has grown from 3.16% to 5.65% month-on-month, while 1-year to 2-year wallets have risen from 23.11% to 24.05%. This means new investors are buying in as the Dogecoin price rises, and old ones are staying firm, a rare alignment that supports a bullish base.

Dogecoin Buying Continues: Glassnode

Together, the drop in spent coins and the rise in holder supply paint one clear picture: Dogecoin’s foundation is strengthening quietly beneath the surface.

Dogecoin Price Targets 20% Upside as Channel Breakout Nears

Dogecoin is trading inside an ascending channel, a bullish pattern that forms when higher lows keep pushing the price upward between two parallel lines. The upper boundary of this DOGE price channel aligns near $0.28, which serves as both resistance and the potential breakout level.

Dogecoin Price Analysis: TradingView

A sustained move above $0.28 would confirm the breakout, unlocking a 20% rally toward $0.32 and $0.34 (target price). However, if momentum continues building while the Dogecoin price stays within the channel, the breakout could occur even earlier. That’s because the upper trendline is rising, so each new higher high brings Dogecoin closer to that safe breakout zone.

If buyers maintain control, the rally could stretch to $0.38 based on Fibonacci projections. On the downside, $0.24 remains key support. As long as it holds, the broader bias stays bullish. A dip under the 0.22 Fibonacci level would invalidate the short-term bullishness.

Dogecoin’s price action and on-chain data tell the same story: coins aren’t moving, holders are adding, and the chart is tightening. Together, they make a quiet but convincing case for a 20% breakout if resistance finally gives way.