Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Drive Price as Treasuries Lose Strength

• Bitcoin ETFs maintain high correlation with BTC price
• Treasury companies see limited impact on demand
• ETF flows surpass corporate acquisitions in influence

The cryptocurrency market has seen Bitcoin ETFs maintain a strong influence on the asset's price movements, while the actions of treasury companies demonstrate considerably less impact.

Second analysis According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, recent ETF flows continue to be strongly correlated with bitcoin’s performance, with an R² coefficient of 0,80 over the past 30 days — indicating that around 80% of price movements can be explained by these flows.

GM everyone. ☕️

While most watch price candles tick, something far more important is happening beneath the surface.

On June 24th, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $588.6M in a single day.

Cumulative ETF holdings are now approaching $130B in AUM, all within the first six months… pic.twitter.com/ZnQaKWbn1O

— Treehodl ⚡️ (@Treehod123) June 25, 2025

In the past 30 days, ETFs have added 13.000 BTC, the lowest volume since April but still enough to accurately reflect market movements. Lunde points out that even with geopolitical tensions and reduced trading activity, the influence of ETFs remains evident.

On the other hand, the growing adoption of bitcoin by treasury companies has not had the same effect on the price of the cryptocurrency. While companies like Strategy make direct purchases using equity or debt, many new initiatives have opted for alternative mechanisms.

More than 50 new treasuries have emerged in the past three months, with some of them conducting cash-for-equity swaps with large BTC holders such as Tether and Bitfinex. Softbank-backed Twenty One acquired 37.230 BTC using this approach. However, such transactions do not generate net demand in the market, weakening the impact on price.

“With the recent surge in bitcoin treasury companies, more investors are being drawn to this type of trading and may seek to sell BTC for cash to participate in ATM offerings or fund companies directly in cash,” Lunde explained. This structure explains the low R² of 0,18 between treasury flows and BTC returns, he said.

During the recent selloff, bitcoin fell to $98.200, weighed down by tensions between the US and Iran, but has since returned to $105.000 as ceasefire negotiations progress. The move also triggered the largest liquidation in perpetual futures contracts since August 2024, with 17.394 BTC being unwound.

Open interest has fallen below 260.000 BTC, suggesting traders are becoming more cautious amid geopolitical instability. Lunde noted that in addition to international tensions, domestic events in the U.S. — such as the Trump administration’s budget and the July tariff expiration — could keep the cryptocurrency market volatile in the coming weeks.