QCP: BTC and ETH Implied Volatility Structure Signals Downside Expectations as Market Awaits Key Catalysts

According to a market commentary released by QCP Capital on June 20, despite the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East, BTC prices continue to trade sideways, with investor sentiment remaining cautious as the market awaits a clear catalyst. The derivatives market is showing a more cautious tone: the risk reversal structure for both BTC and ETH still indicates a preference for downside protection, suggesting that bulls are hedging their spot positions. In addition, the implied volatility for at-the-money ETH options in June is lower than that of the September contracts, which may reflect a decline in short-term event-driven volatility or some investors taking profits.

QCP believes that although volatility is currently low, the market is in a “poised for action” state, and any macro event, policy change, or unexpected news could once again trigger significant volatility.