Bitcoin’s institutionalization puts brakes on wild rallies, analyst says

Bitcoin’s days of triple-digit annual returns may be behind it as growing institutional adoption flattens its long-term growth trajectory, on-chain analyst Willy Woo suggests.

Once seen as a rocket fueled by internet hype and retail dreams, Bitcoin ( BTC ) may be settling into a slower, more mature phase as large investors step in, analyst Willy Woo says.

In a recent post on X, Woo questioned the idea of Bitcoin’s limitless growth, saying “people think BTC is like a magical unicorn that climbs to infinity on moonbeams.” He pointed to a chart showing that the triple-digit annual gains seen in 2017 have since faded, suggesting those days may be behind us.

Woo pointed to 2020 as a key turning point for Bitcoin, saying it marked the start of institutional adoption as “corporations and sovereigns started accumulating.” He noted that Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate dropped from over 100% to around 30-40% after that, and added that the figure has been trending downward as more capital flows into the network.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that private and public companies, ETFs, and governments collectively hold nearly 3 million BTC as of May. After accounting for an estimated 3.5 million lost coins, this represents about 18.75% of Bitcoin’s effective circulating supply.

Entities holding Bitcoin | Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

With this level of accumulation, Woo says Bitcoin is now acting more like a macro asset, and he expects it will “continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium.”

Woo believes Bitcoin will continue to grow over the long term but suggests that its compound annual growth rate is likely to moderate and settle around 8%, taking into account that long-term monetary expansion averages about 5% and global GDP growth is around 3%.

Despite the slowing growth, Woo remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, encouraging investors to “enjoy the ride” for the next 15 to 20 years, noting that few publicly investable assets can match Bitcoin’s performance over the long term, even as its compound annual growth rate gradually declines.