Solana’s $2 Billion Token Unlock: Is Your SOL Portfolio Safe on March 1?

• March’s 11.2M SOL unlock may drive volatility, as traders short ahead of release.
• SOL’s RSI nearing oversold levels hints at a possible rebound if selling persists.
• Despite the unlock, 97.52% of SOL tokens are already circulating in the market.

Solana (SOL) is nearing its unlock event on March 1, releasing 11.2 million tokens worth about $2.07 billion. Notably, this comes to 2.29% of the total supply; a sizable cliff unlock. 

As the cryptocurrency market reacts to this event, traders anticipate increased volatility through mid-March. In the meantime, technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, backing up the uncertainty around SOL’s price movement.

Large Unlock Size & Potential Market Pressure

The upcoming unlock includes tokens from the FTX Estate and a separate foundation sale.

Even so, the release is just 0.01% of Solana’s total market capitalization, which is now $90.45 billion. However, the unlock size is nearly 59% of the daily spot trading volume, pointing to possible supply pressure on the market.

The market reaction to this event has been clear, with traders shorting SOL before the release. Funding rates highlight the bearish sentiment, showing that market participants expect price fluctuations. 

Adding to this, SOL remains far below its all-time high, lagging behind Bitcoin’s performance. Traders aiming to navigate this volatility may think about hedging strategies or using potential price dips.

Related: Weekend Crypto Watch: ADA, TRUMP, SOL, and PNUT – Price Predictions & Market Moves

Future, Smaller Unlocks Still on Horizon

Looking beyond the March event, more unlocks are scheduled for the coming months. 

On April 1, a smaller release of 12.7K SOL, valued at $2.35 million, will happen. Similarly, on May 1, another 73.7K SOL, worth $13.65 million, will be unlocked. Although these releases are minor compared to the March unlock, they still add to the overall circulating supply.

Right now, 97.52% of all token unlocks have been completed, leaving little room for future large-scale events. With 488.4 million SOL currently circulating, the total allocation is $88.22 billion, showing the blockchain’s strong market position. However, short-term price action remains uncertain because of external market factors and trading sentiment.

Technicals Show Continued Downside Risk

At the time of writing, Solana’s price has dropped to $184.33 , reflecting a 3.14% decline over the past 24 hours. In the past week, SOL has fallen by 11.55%, showing sustained downward pressure.

Solana’s technical indicators suggest continued downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36.23, nearing the oversold region. If it drops below 30, it could signal a potential reversal. 

Related: Staking & DeFi Set Stage for Solana $200 Break—Key Price Levels in Focus

The MACD indicator also reflects bearish momentum, with the MACD line positioned below the signal line. Unless a bullish crossover occurs, SOL could face additional selling pressure.