Interest rate derivatives traders predict that the benchmark interest rate will be reduced to about 2.75% by the end of next year, equivalent to implementing ten 25 basis point cuts

Interest rate derivative traders now predict that by the end of next year, the benchmark interest rate will drop to about 2.75%, currently around 5.25%. This is equivalent to ten rate cuts, each cut by 25 basis points, and the Federal Reserve may only take such measures in the event of an economic recession. Although few people on Wall Street predict a quick economic downturn, most agree that compared with a few months ago, there is now a higher risk of an economic recession.