Goldman Sachs analyst: The strength of the U.S. dollar poses a threat to emerging markets, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may cut interest rates earlier
According to Golden Ten reports, Goldman Sachs Group analyst Kamakshya Trivedi said that the strength of the U.S. dollar poses a "sinister" threat to emerging markets, prompting more vulnerable regions to think twice about cutting interest rates to defend their currencies. He believes that while a strong dollar was associated with strong economic growth earlier this year, it may now have more to do with hawkish policies or high inflation. This combination of factors poses entirely new challenges for emerging markets.
Countries including Indonesia and South Korea may face greater pressure, but the impact will be felt widely, he said, citing last week's interest rate decisions in Mexico and Brazil. Mexico kept interest rates on hold, while Brazil slowed the pace of its easing cycle to 25 basis points.
Trivedi expects that over the next few months we will see the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cut interest rates earlier and perhaps more deeply than the Fed, which should keep the dollar stronger for longer.
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