Here is Why Bitcoin (BTC) is Poised for a Strong Year-End

TL;DR

1. Bitcoin’s Recent Surge: Bitcoin’s value increased from around $16,500 to nearly $44,000 this year, with predictions of a strong year-end based on historical Q4 performances.
2. SEC’s Pending Decision: The US SEC’s decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications, expected in Q1 next year, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price.
3. Key On-Chain Metrics: Increased BTC open interest suggests potential volatility, while positive exchange netflow indicates a possible rise in selling pressure and a subsequent price correction.

Could BTC Hit the Gas in the Following Weeks?

The primary cryptocurrency has had a highly successful year so far, with its valuation surging from approximately $16,500 on January 1 to its current level of almost $44,000 (per Coingecko’s data). In addition, numerous experts suggest that the asset is far from stopping its uptrend.

According to Kaiko, the asset is poised for “a strong year-end” due to its excellent performance in the last quarter of the year. The crypto data provider outlined that the only two times BTC had a better final sprint were in 2016 and 2020.

#BTC is poised for a strong year-end.

The crypto asset is down just 4.8% from its YTD high.

Only 2020 and 2016 had a better year-end performance. pic.twitter.com/n6r71z07XD

— Kaiko (@KaikoData) December 19, 2023

Recall that Bitcoin’s surge in Q4 2020 was followed by a massive bull run the following year, which took the asset to a peak of over $63,000 in April and an all-time high of almost $70,000 in November. 

Waiting for the SEC’s Decision

One factor that could influence a BTC price increase is the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Multiple finance giants have already filed applications to introduce such a product in America, with BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity being some examples.

It is worth mentioning that the regulator is expected to weigh in on each ETF in Q1 next year. Considering its practice to approve or reject at the last moment, a decision sounds unlikely to occur before New Year’s Eve.

Observing BTC On-Chain Metrics

Some on-chain metrics are another element worth remarking when predicting a potential Bitcoin rally. According to CryptoQuant, BTC open interest has risen  significantly in the last three days, reaching almost $11.3 billion. Such a development has historically influenced enhanced volatility for the asset in the short term.

On the other hand, BTC exchange netflow  has been  in the negative zone only twice in the past week. Shifting from self-custody methods to marketplaces increases the immediate selling pressure, which might result in a correction for the cryptocurrency.