As 2025 concludes, global markets have experienced remarkable returns. It is anticipated that the S&P 500 will close the year with an 18% increase, the Nasdaq Composite with a 22% rise, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a 15% uptick. Precious metals also posted impressive gains, with gold increasing by 75% since the beginning of the year and silver skyrocketing by 172% compared to its January start, pushing its total market value to $4.5 trillion.
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Outlining the Macro Conditions for 2026 Expectations
According to the Kobeissi Letter, the potential for 2026 to be a “dream year” hinges on the expectation of continued easing in U.S. monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the policy rate three times in 2025 and ended the quantitative tightening process. The market anticipates further interest rate cuts in the upcoming year. With the arrival of a new Fed Chair, the pace of rate reductions may quicken.
Politically, Donald Trump’s call for a 1% interest rate and his promises of stimulus checks funded by tariff revenues keep liquidity and growth discussions for 2026 alive. The prospect of lower borrowing costs is seen as a factor that could boost appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks. Following the record highs in gold and silver, investors may shift capital in search of higher returns.
The Role of Bitcoin in 2026 and the “Catch-up” Scenario for Crypto
Within the Kobeissi Letter’s framework, the cryptocurrency market may find a “catch-up” opportunity in 2026 after trailing expectations in 2025. Despite Bitcoin and some altcoins reaching new peaks throughout 2025, weak performance dominated the year’s duration. Thus, the potential for increased risk appetite in 2026 could theoretically lead to stronger performance from cryptocurrencies.
In the debate over which areas capital may flow into, the theme of artificial intelligence is highlighted as a favored niche. The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that Bitcoin has become more legitimate among institutional investors, particularly with the possible return of the Trump administration bolstering this perception. Should stocks and precious metals form a definitive peak, investors might shift towards areas perceived with higher return potential, with crypto being a candidate for this shift.
