Written by: On-chain Apocalypse
Introduction: Bitcoin's "Dark Forest" Crisis
In the world of blockchain, each node is like a star in the universe, independent yet interconnected, together building a decentralized financial world. As the pioneer of this network, Bitcoin relies on powerful cryptographic algorithms to protect its security. However, this security system is not unbreakable. A technology from the future—quantum computers—is quietly emerging. It is like the Trisolaran fleet in "The Three-Body Problem," possessing the ability of "dimensionality reduction strikes." Once mature, it will launch a fatal attack on Bitcoin and the entire blockchain ecosystem.
So, what should we do if quantum computers crack Bitcoin in the near future? Is there still a chance to fight back in this on-chain survival battle of the "dark forest"?
Chapter One: Bitcoin Will Suffer a "Dimensionality Reduction Strike" from Quantum Technology
In the novel "The Three-Body Problem," the most terrifying weapon is not the laser cannon, but the "dimensionality reduction strike"—a higher-dimensional civilization does not fight you on the same level, but directly compresses three-dimensional space into two dimensions. All your defenses and fortresses collapse into a sheet of paper in an instant. The mathematical "impossibility" that Bitcoin relies on becomes "very easy" in the face of quantum computing.
IBM Quantum System One in Ehningen, Germany. Source: Wikipedia
1.1 Bitcoin's "Technical Barrier" vs. Quantum Computer's "Droplet" Weapon
Bitcoin: 1980s Encryption Standard
Bitcoin's core security relies on the ECDSA algorithm, an encryption standard first proposed in 1985. In this system, each user has a pair of keys: the private key is the user's "thought," known only to themselves; the public key is a public "identity certificate," used to verify the legitimacy of transactions.
Through mathematical one-way functions, generating a public key from a private key is easy, but deriving the private key from the public key is nearly impossible with traditional computing power. Because the Bitcoin network uses 256-bit keys, even the most powerful traditional computers would take longer than the age of the universe to brute-force it. It is this mathematical "impossibility" that protects the security of the Bitcoin network.
Quantum Computers: The "Droplet" New Technology for Cracking Encryption
Quantum computers are a completely new type of computing device, fundamentally different from traditional computers. They utilize quantum phenomena such as superposition and entanglement for computation, and their theoretical computing power for certain problems can grow exponentially.
The advent of quantum computers changes the game— in theory, using Shor's algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can derive the private key directly from the public key in a reasonable amount of time. This is like the Trisolaran "droplet" probe, easily penetrating humanity's strongest defenses. Its attack methods have the following characteristics:
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Stealth: After obtaining the private key, an attacker can legally sign forged transactions, and the entire network will believe this is a normal operation by the asset owner. Just like the silent surveillance of the sophons in "The Three-Body Problem," it is completely undetectable.
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Selectivity: The most vulnerable are wallets whose public keys have already been exposed, especially addresses used in early Bitcoin transactions. Quranium CEO Kapil Dhiman warns: "Satoshi's coins will become easy targets. If these coins are moved, confidence in Bitcoin will collapse completely before the system itself fails."
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"Steal now, decrypt later:" Attackers can copy public data on the blockchain now and wait until quantum computing technology matures to decrypt it. Even if the current network upgrades to more secure algorithms, old addresses, long-dormant wallets, and some smart contract patterns may still become vulnerable.
1.2 Crisis of Trust and Timeline: Satoshi's Over 1 Million Bitcoins
The UK's National Cyber Security Centre recommends that organizations determine their quantum-safe cryptography upgrade path by 2028 and complete migration around 2035. For blockchain systems designed to last decades, preparations must begin now.
Some early estimates suggest that quantum computers may become truly effective around 2030. This means the blockchain industry has little time left.
In this scenario of quantum computer attacks, the blockchain itself will still operate normally—blocks will continue to be mined, and the ledger will remain intact, but asset ownership will have quietly changed. This is even more frightening than technical failure because it destroys trust in the entire system.
Once Satoshi's more than 1 million bitcoins start moving, the market will panic. Even if the blockchain is technically still secure, prices may plummet, triggering a chain reaction that affects traditional financial markets that have already widely adopted cryptocurrencies.
If Bitcoin cannot solve the quantum mechanics problem within the next year, gold will always outperform Bitcoin. This was stated last month on X by the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Carpriole.
Part Two: Layer1's "Wallfacer" Plan
There is a brilliant concept in "The Three-Body Problem": when humanity discovers that alien civilization is monitoring everything on Earth through sophons, all defense plans are exposed in advance. What to do? The United Nations proposes the "Wallfacer Project"—selecting a few "Wallfacers" and giving them the power to mobilize global resources to prepare for the coming invasion.
In the face of the future dimensionality reduction strike of quantum computing, the blockchain world also needs "Wallfacers." The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the United States has played this role. From 2022 to 2024, NIST selected and launched the first batch of post-quantum cryptographic algorithm standardization work. These new algorithms are like the interstellar weapons developed in "The Three-Body Problem"—although they come with larger signature sizes and increased complexity, they do provide practical solutions for blockchain to resist quantum attacks.
Faced with the same threat, different L1 blockchains have chosen different survival strategies.
2.1 Strategy One: Multi-Path Exploration (Wallfacer Experiments)
Wallfacers in "The Three-Body Problem" can experiment in multiple directions simultaneously without explaining to anyone, because no one knows which path will succeed. Some mainstream blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: trying multiple technical solutions at the same time and seeking the optimal solution in practice.
Ethereum: All-Round Technical Exploration
The Ethereum research team is formulating a post-quantum migration task list, including new transaction types, rollup experiments, and zero-knowledge-based wrappers. They are not betting on a single solution but are advancing in multiple directions simultaneously to see which path is most feasible and efficient.
Solana: Optional Security Shelter
Solana has launched an optional quantum-resistant vault. Specifically, the "Solana Winternitz Vault" solution implements a complex hash-based signature system that generates new keys for each transaction.
Sui: Gradual Upgrade Path
The Sui research team has released a dedicated quantum-safe upgrade path and, together with academic partners, proposed an upgrade path that avoids destructive hard forks. This is a gradual strategy that minimizes the impact on existing users.
The core of this strategy is "choice": not forcing everyone to upgrade, but providing multiple options and letting the market and users decide for themselves.
2.2 Strategy Two: Transforming the Old World (Bunker Plan)
The "Bunker Plan" in "The Three-Body Problem" is not about tearing down and rebuilding, but building shelters behind giant planets—the old world continues to run, and the new defense system is gradually established. Some blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: adding a quantum-safe layer to the existing system, allowing the old and new systems to coexist so users can migrate gradually.
Algorand: Adding Defense at Key Nodes
Algorand is a typical example of post-quantum technology applied in production environments. In 2022, it introduced "State Proofs," using the NIST-standardized lattice-based signature scheme FALCON. These proofs verify the state of the Algorand ledger every few hundred blocks, providing quantum-safe verification services for other chains. Recently, Algorand also demonstrated a complete post-quantum transaction on the mainnet, showcasing Falcon-based logic signatures.
Cardano: Dual-Track Long-Term Planning
Although Cardano currently still uses Ed25519 signatures, its team regards quantum readiness as a long-term differentiator. Founder Charles Hoskinson outlined a plan combining independent proof chains, Mithril certificates, and NIST-compliant post-quantum signatures.
2.3 Strategy Three: Building a New World (Ring City)
At the end of "The Three-Body Problem," humanity no longer tries to defend Earth but directly builds a new civilization in space—no historical baggage, no compromise, designing for the new environment from the very first brick. Some new blockchain projects have chosen this path: building completely quantum-resistant systems from scratch.
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Naoris Protocol: Mentioned in proposals submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, focusing on post-quantum infrastructure.
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Quranium: Uses the NIST-approved stateless hash-based digital signature algorithm (SPHINCS+), designed for the quantum era at the protocol level.
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Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL): Launched in 2018, built on hash-based XMSS signatures, one of the earliest quantum-resistant blockchains.
These projects do not need to consider backward compatibility, do not need to migrate old users, and do not have to struggle to balance performance and security. They directly establish colonies in the "new universe," waiting for the quantum era to arrive.
Part Three: The Dark Forest Law—Everyone Must Make a Choice
3.1 Coping Strategies for Individual Users
Avoid long-term dormancy: Regularly check and update wallets to avoid becoming the "preferred" target of quantum attacks.
Prepare for key upgrades: In the coming years, new account types, hybrid signature options, and wallet prompts are expected to emerge, encouraging users to upgrade the keys of high-value assets.
Pay attention to cryptographic agility: Choose ecosystems that can add and rotate cryptographic primitives without destructive hard forks.
3.2 Due Diligence for Investors
Roadmap transparency: Does the project have a clearly documented post-quantum roadmap?
Actual implementation: Are there prototypes or actual features, or is it just marketing hype?
Time planning: Has the project already started preparing for quantum threats in the 2030s?
Conclusion: Give Time for On-Chain Evolution
In "The Three-Body Problem," the "Swordholder" can decide the fate of humanity alone, but there is no such role in the blockchain world. Each project is exploring its own path. Whose solution will work? No one knows. But this is precisely the resilience of decentralization—no single point of failure, and no single answer.
The threat of quantum computing is not the end, but the beginning. Blockchain may not be able to preserve all of the past, but as long as the core principles remain—decentralization, censorship resistance, trustlessness—civilization will continue.
Give civilization to the years, give on-chain evolution to time—only a prepared civilization can enter the next dimension.
