Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Nearing a Breaking Point? What On-Chain Data Reveals

Bitcoin has posted seven consecutive weeks of gains, pushing its price above $100,000. However, new signals suggest this bullish streak might soon end.

Identifying the precise moment of a price reversal is challenging. However, certain signs may indicate rising risks, particularly for investors who have not established strong positions yet.

Two Signs Indicate Profit-Taking May End the 7-Week Rally

The first notable sign is that wallets with large balances have stopped accumulating and have started distributing their coins.

Glassnode data confirms this trend. In May, the accumulation score for wallets holding over 10,000 BTC dropped from around 0.8 to below 0.5. This shift is visually represented by a change in color from blue to orange.

“The group of wallets holding the most BTC has started distributing,” Thuan Capital stated.

Bitcoin Trend Accumulation Score by Cohort. Source: Glassnode

Additionally, wallets between 1 BTC and 10,000 BTC show weaker accumulation behavior, as seen through gradually fading blue tones. Only wallets with less than 1 BTC are showing a clear shift from distribution to strong accumulation, triggered by Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high.

These data points reflect a profit-taking tendency among large investors. At the same time, smaller retail investors appear driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) as they chase short-term opportunities.

Another warning sign comes from Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs). UTXOs are a technical mechanism that ensures each individual BTC can only be spent once on the blockchain. They also provide a way to evaluate unrealized profit across all unspent BTC.

Bitcoin Euphoria Phase at 99% UTXOs in Profit. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data shows that when 99% of UTXOs are in profit, it usually signals a market overheating phase. Historically, such phases often precede price corrections. Whether the correction is short- or long-term, this signal still highlights a growing risk for buyers.

“Right now, it’s hard to say we’re in a euphoric phase. The broader macroeconomic context and the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policy direction make it difficult for investors to flip fully risk-on. When this 99% signal drops, unrealized profits shrink and can trigger more profit-taking and push latecomers to capitulate and sell at a loss,” analyst Darkfost said.

As of now, Bitcoin’s rally has paused around $108,000. There are no clear signs of a correction yet. BeInCrypto reports a strong wave of Bitcoin accumulation among corporations worldwide. Many experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price.

“A tidal wave of institutional demand is reshaping bitcoin’s market dynamics: Wealth‐management platforms poised to roll out access to bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries adding bitcoin to boost shareholder returns, and sovereigns diversifying reserves into bitcoin to hedge geopolitical risk. Together, these forces are creating a structural supply/demand imbalance—and over the next 18 months, bitcoin is set to cement its role as a global store of value,” Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise Asset Management, told BeInCrypto.

Therefore, while these short-term indicators could hint at a pullback from current highs, they don’t seem to affect analysts’ broader expectations for this year and next.