Analysis: The US dollar still has a significant room to fall
Forexlive's chief forex analyst Adam Button stated that Powell has always been dovish during his tenure, and he emphasized this point today. Clearly, Powell does not want to lag behind the curve in the rate-cutting cycle and decides to take the initiative. He explicitly stated at the Jackson Hole meeting that he did not want to see further deterioration of the labor market, predicting that if employment data continues to weaken, there is a possibility of another 50 basis points cut in November. Until recently, markets still believed in "U.S. dollar exceptionalism", thinking that U.S economic growth would perform well and interest rates would remain higher than other regions. Now it's clear that Fed's pace of rate cuts will be as fast as other G10 central banks or even faster. Therefore, if the Fed continues like this, there is much room for the dollar to fall further. Overall, this rate cut is a bold move; I believe history will judge it as correct. The bond market implies that we have won against inflation before Fed needs to pause for thought; there’s room for rates to drop all way down till 3%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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