the only real utilityの‌価格hype

$HYPE is showing signs of a bullish divergence on the daily chart assuming we set aside the crash wick. A green close today would confirm it. The key level to watch is $36.8. A strong close above that with volume could open the path to 43, shifting the structure back to bullish. But timing is everything. As long as Bitcoin dominance holds above 59% Keep HYPE on the radar the real momentum begins once BTC.D starts to break down.

$HYPE SHOWING SLIGHT BEARISH MOMENTUM !! DOWN BY 10% IN THE LAST 1 WEEK!! STAY TUNED FOR SIGNALS !!

$HYPE SHOWING SLIGHT BULLISH MOMENTUM !! UP BY 5% IN THE LAST 24HR!! STAY TUNED FOR SIGNALS !!

$HYPE leads all blockchains in fees over the past 24 hours, surpassing BNB Chain, $TRX and $ETH .

Despite a recent market crash, short-term retail traders are showing strong, aggressive optimism by significantly increasing their long positions on major cryptocurrencies. Data reveals that this extreme positioning is setting up retail for a liquidation cascade, suggesting that hopes for a quick V-shaped recovery may be fading. 1. Key Factor: Extreme Retail Sentiment (Net Open Long Positions) Retail traders are overwhelmingly bullish in the derivatives market, betting heavily on a rebound: Key Finding (Net Open Long Positions): The Long Ratio for retail accounts across major cryptocurrencies is at an extreme level, ranging from 68% to 79% for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and HYPE. For example, BTC has 68% of retail accounts long (97th percentile), and SOL is at 79% long (98th percentile). Specific Evidence of Positioning: On major exchanges like Binance, the Long/Short Account Ratio is similarly high (e.g., 2.1 for BTC and 3.7 for SOL). This suggests a large number of retail accounts are expecting a V-shaped market recovery after the sharp October 11 decline. 2. Consequence: Liquidation Risk and Negative Correlation This extreme bullish positioning carries a severe, immediate risk: Consequence (Liquidation Risk): The aggressive long positioning exposes retail traders to a high risk of liquidation. Recently, over $1.1 billion in positions were liquidated, with $873 million coming directly from long trades. This liquidation surge indicates that retail optimism is struggling under continuous selling pressure. Negative Correlation: Data from Hyblock shows a strong negative correlation between rising long ratios and price movements: as long ratios rise, prices tend to fall (e.g., BTC correlation of -0.93). This pattern suggests retail longs may face mounting unrealized losses. 3. Potential Effect on the BTC Price The current positioning makes a swift V-shaped recovery unlikely: Potential Effect: Excessive liquidations drain retail traders' capital, meaning that even if altcoins drop to lower prices, these traders may no longer have the funds to buy back in. This lack of available capital to buy the dip makes a quick V-shaped recovery unlikely and is expected to keep the market volatile and range-bound at lower levels. Conclusion Retail traders are engaging in a high-risk gamble by aggressively increasing their long positions in October despite mounting market instability. The extreme positioning (up to 79% long) has already resulted in a $1.1 billion liquidation event and is negatively correlated with price, suggesting further losses are likely. The current setup dampens the probability of a fast recovery, leaving the market highly vulnerable to continued downward pressure as the hopes of a V-shaped bounce fade. Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.