Analyst: This Is Why XRP Looks Dead Right Now

At a time when market participation has thinned and sentiment remains subdued, crypto analyst STEPHISCRYPTO argues that XRP’s current price behavior may be misleading.

While XRP appears inactive to many observers, the analyst maintains that underlying technical conditions suggest the market is approaching a decisive phase.

According to the assessment shared alongside a detailed video update, XRP is not displaying weakness due to a lack of structure, but rather because it is trading within a tightly compressed range that historically precedes significant price movement.

This Is Why #XRP Looks Dead Right Now pic.twitter.com/9XXvXeEzk4

— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) December 16, 2025

Weekly Compression and Structural Support

On the weekly timeframe, XRP is positioned firmly within a long-established support zone that has been monitored for months. Price action is confined between descending resistance and ascending support lines, creating a narrowing structure that indicates compression.

The analyst emphasizes that such formations rarely persist indefinitely. While acknowledging that outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty, the analysis highlights that XRP is consolidating above support during a period marked by elevated fear and minimal retail engagement.

From a probabilistic standpoint, the analyst views these conditions as more consistent with a potential upside reaction than an extended breakdown.

Daily RSI Divergence Signals Waning Sell Pressure

Further insight is drawn from the daily chart, where the Relative Strength Index is forming higher lows despite XRP printing lower lows in price.

This bullish divergence is described as an uncommon occurrence on XRP’s daily timeframe. The analyst notes that a similar setup last emerged during the 2022 bear market low, after which XRP stabilized and later advanced sharply.

Such divergences are interpreted as early indications that selling momentum is weakening while buyer interest is gradually rebuilding, even if price action has yet to reflect that shift.

Relative Strength Against Bitcoin Gains Attention

The analysis also extends to XRP’s performance against Bitcoin. A multi-year resistance level on the XRP/BTC chart, which had repeatedly rejected prices since 2017, was broken earlier in the year and is now being retested as potential support.

If this level holds, the analyst suggests XRP could continue to strengthen relative to Bitcoin, challenging the assumption that its price movements are entirely dependent on Bitcoin’s direction.

Macro Risks and Conflicting Signals

Despite constructive technical signals, several risk factors remain. XRP is still trading below its 50-week simple moving average, a condition that previously coincided with further downside.

Additionally, planned policy actions by the Bank of Japan, including ETF unwinding and potential rate hikes, are cited as historically unfavorable for risk assets. However, the analyst notes that, unlike prior instances, markets have already declined ahead of these developments, reducing the likelihood of a severe follow-up move.

Assessing the Broader Outlook

Taken together, STEPHISCRYPTO concludes that XRP is more likely approaching a market floor than a peak. While bearish scenarios, such as a double-bottom structure, remain possible, the prevailing technical evidence suggests an advanced stage of consolidation rather than structural failure. The period ahead is framed as critical, with price compression suggesting that prolonged inactivity is unlikely to persist.