"Fed Mouthpiece": Three Rate Cuts Fail to Ease Internal Disputes, "Stagflation Risk" Requires Vigilance

Jinse Finance reported that "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos recently wrote that Federal Reserve officials have cut rates for the third consecutive meeting, but there is unusual disagreement within the Fed over whether inflation or the job market should be the bigger concern, so officials have indicated little willingness to continue cutting rates. Public comments from Fed officials in recent weeks show that the committee is deeply divided, to the extent that the final decision may depend on how Fed Chair Powell wishes to proceed. Powell's term will expire in May next year, meaning he will only preside over the next three rate-setting meetings. Persistent price pressures alongside a cooling labor market have presented the Fed with an unpleasant trade-off not seen in decades. During the so-called "stagflation" period of the 1970s, when officials faced a similar dilemma, the Fed's stop-and-go approach allowed high inflation to become entrenched. Jonathan Pingle, Chief U.S. Economist at UBS, said: "As rates approach neutral levels, with each rate cut, you lose the support of more participants, and you need data to motivate those participants to join the majority in order to achieve a rate cut."