Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Fed's Defining Week! The Federal Reserve Faces the "Ultimate Showdown"

BlockBeats News, November 30 — This week, due to the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, market trading volume has remained very low, which is a typical feature of Thanksgiving trading. However, as the CME "pulled the plug" on Friday due to a data center failure, spot gold and silver experienced significant volatility and continued to rise after futures prices resumed quoting. Gold prices surged nearly $150 this week, returning above $4,200. In terms of data, the U.S. September PPI and retail sales data performed poorly, and the weekly private sector employment data released by ADP was also quite weak.

At 09:00 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at a commemorative event;

At 23:00 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify before the House Committee.

At 21:15 on Wednesday, U.S. November ADP employment numbers;

At 21:30 on Wednesday, U.S. September Import Price Index MoM;

At 22:15 on Wednesday, U.S. September Industrial Production MoM;

At 22:45 on Wednesday, U.S. November S&P Global Services PMI final reading;

At 23:00 on Wednesday, U.S. November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

At 21:30 on Thursday, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29;

At 23:00 on Friday, U.S. December one-year inflation expectations preliminary reading, December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading, September Core PCE Price Index YoY, September Personal Spending MoM, September Core PCE Price Index MoM.

If November services activity grows healthily again, it will support the hawks within the Federal Reserve, while a sudden drop to 50.0 or below would support the case for an immediate rate cut. Equally important is next Wednesday's ADP employment report. The official November nonfarm payrolls report will not be released until December 16, and with the October report canceled, the ADP private sector employment survey will provide an important update on the labor market.