Event Review 📈
Last night, the market witnessed a short-term surge in ETH. Starting from 21:30 (UTC+8), the price of ETH soared from around $3,446, reaching $3,554 within just 56 minutes, and further climbing to $3,563 within the next hour, with gains of 3.13% and 3.28% respectively. This rally not only reflected the strong buying enthusiasm from both institutions and retail investors, but also demonstrated the interplay of multiple factors fermenting in the market. On the news front, positive signals came from calls by Federal Reserve officials for a rate cut in December, expectations of government liquidity release, and Trump’s positive statements regarding tariff dividends and economic performance. At the same time, some high-leverage positions were forcibly liquidated, releasing a large amount of buying power, which led to a short-term influx of funds and further pushed up the price.
Timeline ⏱️
- 21:30 (UTC+8)
The market opened, driven by macro policy expectations and the liquidation of some high-leverage trading positions. The price of ETH triggered the first wave of buying around $3,446. - 21:30 to 22:30 (UTC+8)
Buying momentum continued to strengthen, with capital flowing in, and the price quickly climbed from around $3,450 to $3,563, achieving a gain of over 3% in a short period. - 22:26 (UTC+8)
News broke that ETH had surpassed the $3,500 mark, with bulls gradually taking profits and buying sentiment further ignited. - 22:55 (UTC+8)
As some investors began to take profits and the market underwent a short-term correction, the price of ETH slightly pulled back to around $3,505.76, ending the previous rapid rally.
Reason Analysis 🔍
Macro Policy Expectations
Calls for a Federal Reserve rate cut, government liquidity release, and Trump’s comments on tariff dividends have increased market risk appetite. All parties expect more liquidity to be injected in the future, stimulating capital to actively enter the market and driving prices higher.Leverage Liquidation Effect
A large number of high-leverage positions in the market were forcibly liquidated, triggering a wave of capital release. These technical events directly led to a surge in local buying, further intensifying price volatility.Policy and Safety Margin Factors
Related news shows that regulatory agencies are actively promoting the compliant development of derivatives and spot trading products, which reserves positive expectations for the long-term healthy development of the market and, in the short term, stimulates capital to chase high-quality assets.
Technical Analysis 📊
This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick data of Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT, mainly observing the following indicators:
- RSI Indicator: After breaking through 70, it entered the overbought zone, indicating a potential risk of price correction in the short term.
- Bollinger Bands: The price moved along the upper band, showing a strong trend, but approaching the upper band also indicates an overbought phenomenon.
- KDJ Indicator: Although there are signs of a death cross, the overall overbought situation is prominent, and the risk warning should not be ignored.
- OBV Indicator: Continues to rise and breaks previous highs, indicating that buying power remains strong.
- Trading Volume: Trading volume surged by 510.36% in the short term, and the volume is far above the moving average level, showing extremely concentrated market activity; at the same time, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bullish alignment, indicating strong short-term bullish sentiment.
- Liquidations and Large Transactions: In the past hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network was about $10 million, with short positions accounting for 89%, while the main net inflow of funds was about $2 million, indicating that some institutions have begun to adjust their positions, but overall buying still dominates.
Market Outlook 🔮
In the face of such dramatic market fluctuations, there is a clear divergence in the short term. On one hand, expectations of macro easing policies and continued liquidity injection will provide support for ETH and other high-quality assets, driving a market rebound; on the other hand, technical indicators show short-term overbought risks, and with some funds taking profits, market correction pressure cannot be ignored. Investors should pay attention to the following points in the future:
- Policy Developments: If rate cuts and other positive economic policies continue to be implemented, ETH may gain longer-term upward momentum; conversely, if macroeconomic uncertainty arises, the market may turn cautious.
- Technical Turning Points: In the short term, observe changes in the RSI and KDJ indicators. If the price continues to hover near the upper Bollinger Band without breaking new highs, a correction may be imminent.
- Liquidity and Position Management: In response to the liquidation risks brought by recent high-leverage trading, market participants should strengthen risk control awareness, avoid blindly chasing highs, and consider buying on dips when appropriate.
Overall, the future trend of ETH will still rely on macro liquidity and policy expectations, but the overbought status of technical indicators also reminds investors to be alert to short-term corrections. Closely monitoring global economic policy developments as well as market trading volume and liquidation data will help better judge the next move.
