Can x402 break the crypto concept of "hype equals peak"?

Unlike typical crypto concepts, x402 has attracted the attention of numerous Web2 tech giants, and these companies have already begun to actually adopt the protocol.

Written by: 100y.eth

Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Key Points

• In the crypto industry, most new concepts go through three stages: "hype, infrastructure building, and application adoption." However, most concepts fail to successfully transition from the hype stage to the infrastructure stage and eventually lose market attention.
• x402 is an AI agent payment protocol developed by Coinbase, enabling AI agents to autonomously complete payments and access paid resources via blockchain, without human intervention.
• Judging from the recent surge in the price of x402-related tokens, the protocol has entered the hype stage; but unlike other crypto concepts, giants such as Cloudflare, Google Cloud, and Anthropic are actively adopting x402, and its infrastructure building is advancing rapidly.
• Given the potential of agent commerce, x402 is highly likely to enter the application stage, but the bottleneck lies in the transformation of consumer psychology and trust systems. According to Accenture data, the biggest obstacle to large-scale adoption of agent commerce is consumers' lack of trust in AI agents.
• However, Gartner predicts that by 2030, the transaction volume dominated by AI agents will reach $30 trillion, and agent commerce will become an inevitable massive market in the future. At that time, the blockchain industry, after stablecoins, will find its second global "product-market fit (PMF)" through x402.

The Cycle of Hype, Infrastructure, and Application

The "Survival Test" of New Concepts

The crypto industry changes rapidly, and the rise and fall cycle of new concepts often lasts less than a few months, with the concentration and dissipation of attention far exceeding other industries. From a macro perspective, popular concepts such as NFT, gaming, metaverse, and modular blockchains have all experienced this pattern; from a micro perspective, the recent "Futarchy" is a typical example—after a brief surge, it quickly faded from the market's view.

Due to the endless emergence of new concepts in crypto, for a concept to achieve true "application landing," it must overcome multiple obstacles. I summarize this process into three stages:

1. Hype Stage: The period when a new concept first gains widespread attention. During this stage, even existing projects with only a weak connection to the concept, newly launched small projects, and related meme coins often see their prices soar by dozens or even hundreds of percent. If the concept successfully transitions to the next stage, prices may remain stable; but in most cases, prices plummet within weeks or months, and related projects disappear.
2. Infrastructure Stage: When the potential and practicality of a new concept are validated, developers begin to build products of real value based on the concept. Product development takes a long time (ranging from months to over a year), so vague and weak concepts often "die young" at this stage. However, if the concept is truly meaningful, it will maintain steady attention and create real application scenarios, with the entire field gradually growing.
3. Application Stage: Concepts that reach this step are extremely rare! In crypto, only a few concepts such as Automated Market Makers (AMMs), Central Limit Order Books (CLOBs), lending protocols, staking-related protocols, and stablecoins have reached this stage. Concepts that enter the application stage have validated their "product-market fit (PMF)," and new protocols will continue to emerge, attracting large numbers of active users.

Typical Cases in the Crypto Industry

So, at what stage are the recent hot topics on crypto social platforms?

• Futarchy: As mentioned earlier, Futarchy entered the hype stage after being mentioned by Vitalik, but the heat soon faded; recently, it briefly heated up again thanks to Solana's ICO platform, but lost favor again within just a few weeks. The core reason is that Futarchy involves complex governance systems, and without generational changes in human social concepts, it is difficult to achieve large-scale adoption.
• Decentralized Energy: Decentralized energy entered the hype stage last year after several companies received top-tier VC investments. Recently, Daylight received $75 million in investment from Framework and a16zcrypto, briefly reigniting market enthusiasm, but attention did not last. Fundamentally, decentralized energy is a field that requires physical infrastructure support, so its infrastructure stage is bound to be lengthy.
• Crypto x Robotics: The development path of robotics is similar to the above cases. During the "crypto + AI" concept boom, the "crypto + robotics" project Openmind raised $20 million from Pantera and other institutions, sparking market interest in robotics. Afterwards, many small and medium-sized projects and meme coins saw their prices soar, but it will still take time to enter the application stage. However, given the huge potential of the "crypto + robotics" concept, many developers, including Openmind, are actively advancing product development.

From these cases, it is clear that in the crypto industry, it is extremely difficult for a new concept to go from "birth" to "application landing."

However, the x402 protocol, which has recently surged in popularity on crypto social platforms, seems poised to quickly break this "curse" and smoothly enter the application stage. So, what makes x402 special?

Can the x402 Protocol Succeed?

x402 Protocol Overview

The x402 protocol is an open payment protocol developed by Coinbase, with its core function enabling AI agents to autonomously complete payments and transactions without human intervention. Through x402, AI agents can use stablecoins to pay for services across multiple blockchain networks, with the advantage of "instant settlement," eliminating the need for account registration, subscription activation, API key configuration, and other complex processes.

Source: Coinbase

HTTP 402 is a network status code indicating "Payment Required," but it has rarely been used in practice. The x402 protocol leverages this status code: when an AI agent sends an API request, the server returns an HTTP 402 status code, prompting "payment required to continue"; upon recognizing this prompt, the AI agent automatically pays the corresponding fee in stablecoins. The specific process is as follows:

1. When an AI agent attempts to access paid services such as news, API interfaces, or data, the server returns an "HTTP 402 Payment Required" status code. This response not only includes the payment prompt but also key information such as payment method, amount, and recipient wallet address.
2. The AI agent generates a transaction for the corresponding amount based on the information provided by the server, adds a digital signature, and sends it back to the server.
3. The server passes the transaction to a "Facilitator," who verifies the payment's validity and processes the transaction on the blockchain.
4. After payment is completed, the server grants the AI agent access to the paid service.

The value of x402 goes far beyond "providing a payment standard for AI agents." Because payments are made via blockchain stablecoins, it enables "micropayments" that were previously difficult to achieve—AI agents can call APIs or pay for services in real time based on actual usage; at the same time, human users can bypass complex steps such as API key management and account registration, and directly access content through micropayments.

Already in the Hype Stage

Source: a16zcrypto

The x402 protocol was launched in May 2025 and initially received only moderate attention. However, after being mentioned in a16z's report "The State of Crypto 2025: The Year Crypto Goes Mainstream," the protocol's popularity soared. Gartner predicts that by 2030, the agent commerce market will reach $30 trillion, while a16z points out that x402 is likely to become the core payment channel for AI agents.

The most direct signal that x402 has entered the hype stage is the surge in related token prices. For example, the token $VIRTUAL, which rises whenever the "AI agent" concept heats up, soared by 40% in just two days; other related tokens also saw significant increases, as shown in the chart below.

On the surface, x402 seems no different from other "hype-driven" crypto concepts—hollow, superficial, and entirely driven by market enthusiasm. In fact, many new crypto concepts do follow this path: after a surge in the prices of small projects and meme coins, they quickly fall silent.

But x402 is fundamentally different from these concepts: first, "AI agent payments" are not only highly relevant in crypto but also have real value in the broader AI industry, making it a "potential" theme; second, many Web2 companies are actively paying attention to and adopting x402. These factors mean that x402 may not remain in the hype stage for long, but instead quickly transition to the infrastructure building stage.

Infrastructure Building Underway

Currently, the x402 protocol is simultaneously in the "hype stage" and the "infrastructure stage." In fact, even before entering the hype stage, many Web2 and Web3 companies had already begun building infrastructure for x402 and integrating it into their own services. Therefore, more accurately, x402 started from the "infrastructure stage."

Interestingly, unlike typical crypto concepts, x402 has attracted the attention of numerous Web2 tech giants, and these companies have already begun to actually adopt the protocol.

Cloudflare

Cloudflare is a company providing internet infrastructure and security solutions, and has recently launched services such as "Agents SDK" (helping developers quickly create and deploy AI agents) and "Workers AI" (an AI model inference runtime environment).

Cloudflare and Coinbase jointly launched the "x402 Foundation" and are highly active in the x402 ecosystem. Its "Agents SDK" service has integrated the x402 protocol, enabling AI agents to easily complete payments over the internet.

Notably, Cloudflare has also recently launched the "NET Dollar," a USD stablecoin designed specifically for AI agents. In the future, AI agents developed based on the "Agents SDK" can conduct agent commerce activities using the x402 protocol and NET Dollar.

Vercel

Vercel is a cloud platform company that mainly helps developers quickly build and deploy web applications. Recently, Vercel launched services such as "Vercel AI SDK" and "Vercel MCP"—the former helps developers build and deploy AI agents, while the latter supports project access via the MCP interface. In September 2025, Vercel released the x402-mcp tool, enabling AI agents to automatically complete payments via x402 when accessing paid APIs or resources through MCP.

Google Cloud

Google Cloud previously launched the A2A protocol (an AI agent communication and collaboration protocol), which includes an extension module called "AP2 (Agent Payment Protocol)" that supports autonomous payments by AI agents. The x402 protocol has been integrated into this system as a "payment engine" to help AI agents complete actual transactions.

Anthropic

Anthropic is a well-known AI company that developed the Claude large language model (LLM), which users can use to build AI agent services. In addition, Anthropic has launched an open-source standard called "MCP"—this protocol defines the rules for AI models to access external tools and data. Currently, Claude MCP supports the x402 protocol, meaning Claude can automatically complete payments when accessing paid MCP tools.

Visa

As the world's largest credit card payment network, Visa recently announced a partnership with Cloudflare to jointly develop the "Trusted Agent Protocol." This protocol can verify the trustworthiness of AI requests in agent commerce and supports payments via the x402 protocol.

Other Participants

According to Coinbase's announcement, companies such as Circle and AWS are also cooperating with the x402 protocol.

In addition to support at the company and protocol level, developer tools are also gradually emerging, such as x402scan. This browser tool visually displays servers, transaction records, and payment processes that use x402, helping users clearly understand "which services use which facilitators and on which networks payments are made." As the x402 ecosystem continues to expand, more companies and tools are expected to join, further enriching the ecosystem.

Can x402 Enter the Application Stage?

Still Some Distance from the Application Stage

Source: x402scan

Judging from the surge in related token prices and the adoption by tech giants, x402 already covers both the "hype stage" and the "infrastructure stage." But for x402, the key question is: can it successfully enter the "application stage"?

According to x402scan data, as of now, about 55,000 buyers have initiated 879,000 transactions with 1,000 sellers. While the number of transactions seems considerable, the total transaction volume is only about $923,000—this scale shows that x402 is still quite far from the "application stage."

Key Conditions for Entering the Application Stage

What conditions must x402 meet to enter the application stage? The most frequently mentioned core factors are "consumer psychology" and "trust systems." Even as someone who has long followed x402, while I can accept AI agents providing recommendations in business scenarios, I would still have concerns about entrusting funds entirely to AI agents.

Currently, even the most advanced large language models occasionally output incorrect or unexpected results. Psychologically, it is difficult for consumers to trust AI agents developed based on such models to handle payment transactions. In fact, an Accenture survey of financial institutions showed: 87% of respondents believe "customer distrust of AI payments" is a core issue; 78% worry that "AI bots may make unauthorized payments or participate in fraud."

The second key factor is the "current state of enterprise infrastructure." Accenture data shows that 85% of financial institutions say their existing legacy systems cannot meet the needs of "large-scale agent payments." Among them, "lack of systems to deal with agent payment fraud transactions" is one of the main obstacles preventing the industry from entering the application stage.

In summary, for x402 to enter the application stage, companies need to build optimized systems for agent commerce and cultivate consumer trust in the system. However, both infrastructure development and changes in consumer psychology require a long time—therefore, the process for x402 to enter the application stage may take longer than expected.

Significance for the Blockchain Industry

Gartner predicts that by 2030, AI agents will influence $30 trillion in procurement. Although the AI agent payment market is still in its early stages, the x402 protocol has already shown the potential to "become an industry standard"—this is evidenced by tech giants such as Google, Anthropic, and Cloudflare adopting x402 for AI agent payment businesses.

When the x402 ecosystem becomes more active, what changes can the crypto market expect? A highly likely prediction is: the recent surge in x402-related tokens is unlikely to last long. Since the rise of the "crypto + AI" field, this track has gradually developed into a concept with real significance and has seen many innovative initiatives; but looking back at history, the tokens of small projects and meme coins that soared in the early hype stage mostly performed poorly afterward.

Source: x402scan

The clear value that x402 brings to the blockchain industry is that all AI agent payments will be completed on blockchain networks. Currently, most transactions occur on the Base network, with a few on Solana; but the x402 protocol was designed from the outset to be "blockchain agnostic" and can be adapted to any blockchain network. This means that as the x402 ecosystem expands, payment activities will no longer be limited to Base and Solana—but will cover more blockchain networks driven by supply and demand from both buyers and sellers.

Agent commerce is an inevitable massive market in the future, and all payments will eventually be completed via the x402 protocol on the blockchain. At that time, the blockchain industry, after stablecoins, will find its second global "product-market fit (PMF)" through x402.